Global IT companies predict that smartphones will gradually disappear from the market – not due to the lack of semiconductors, but due to the transition to a new way of communicating and receiving information. At the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark said that in the near future humanity will abandon traditional means of communication. We tell you what the future technical revolution is all about, what telecommunications devices are on the market and what prevents us from communicating without intermediaries such as a smartphone or smartwatch.

In the era of 5G networks, the smartphone remains the most convenient tool for accessing information. Most phones released in 2022 support next-generation networks. However, Nokia believes that the 5G era will end at the same time as the smartphone era. Pekka Lundmark predicts that the transition to new ways of communication will occur in the next decade, not later than 2030, in conjunction with the emergence of 6G. “Back then, the smartphone we know today would not be the most common interface,” said a senior executive of the company. According to the speaker, many new devices will be integrated directly into the user’s body. Lundmark’s idea is supported by Google, which believes that people will choose a more convenient and faster means of communication – hi-tech gadgets based on augmented reality technology.

IT giants’ forecasts may relate to priorities and impact in the mobile market. At zero, Nokia lost its status as a major phone maker, losing its stake to Apple, Samsung, and many Chinese companies. Currently, the Finnish company is focused on developing and maintaining new telecommunications networks. It is considered one of the main players in the 5G market. Google, in turn, is engaged in the production of smartphones, but cannot fully compete with the leading device manufacturers. According to the latest StatCounter report, the share of Google Pixel phones in the North American market is 2.32%, and it does not exceed the statistical error in the global market.

It is clear that companies that have lost or have not yet gained much influence in the market are more actively involved in the development of new technologies. For example, in 2019, inferior to Samsung in the production of expensive smartphones, Apple introduced the Fold device – a Korean company discovered a segment of complex devices and became its leader.

If you drop traditional phones, Nokia will offer support for 6G networks, which can be hundreds or thousands of times faster than existing networks, according to Pekki Lundmark. Rumor has it that Google is trying to enter the market for advanced devices but is working on next-gen devices. In mid-May, the company announced the concept of smart glasses, which allows you to instantly translate a foreign language and display it as text on the lens of the device.

The company already has experience in the production of such gadgets: in 2014, the Google Glass headset was released. According to experts, the device was ahead of its time and failed in the mass market due to its high cost. Smart glasses have remained a niche device.

What will change?

The closest substitutes for smartphones now seem to be smart glasses or headsets for virtual and augmented reality. According to TrendForce research firm, by 2023, the VR/AR headset market will approach 19 million units. Already in 2021, the global supply of such devices reached almost 10 million units. Experts believe that the development of the segment will be influenced by consumer interest in meta-universes. There are several headset models on the market today, including Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 and Meta’s Oculus Quest 2.

Currently, smart glasses are mainly used in video games and to gain new experience for employees of some companies that require visualization of the production process and fast data exchange. Dozens of institutions and startups are developing new generation headphones. For example, Lenovo ThinkReality A3 glasses use AR technology to help create a virtual workplace. Engineers, designers, doctors can create up to five workspaces, increasing productivity and mobility. Presented at CES 2020, the Panasonic headset allows you to visualize information in Ultra HD resolution with HDR support – thanks to the design, the glasses are almost invisible on the wearer’s head.

The startup CREAL uses light field technology that allows the glasses to reflect three-dimensional objects with true optical depth. This helps the eyes perceive virtual objects more naturally at different distances. Vuzix smart glasses feature a pair of RGB projectors the size of a regular pencil eraser. This allowed the engineers to create a weightless headset.

The supply of mixed reality headsets should motivate other mega-companies to work in this direction. TrendForce analysts also believe that the growth of the segment is spurring Apple to launch its own glasses soon with support for alternate reality. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, the American company has been developing smart glasses for a long time. Another official insider, Min-Chi Ko, said that Apple has already developed several versions of the future headset.

The close attention paid to Tim Cook’s company is explained by the fact that, by his example, the company can stimulate the device market and accelerate its development. Now Apple’s main product is the iPhone, which revolutionized the beginning of the zero and marked a new era in the phone segment.

The company’s management has traditionally kept the development of future products a secret, but the IT giant’s top executives say they are interested in alternate reality devices. Rumor has it that a mixed reality headset could be as important to Tim Cook as Steve Jobs’ iPhone in the 2000s. “I think AR is one of the very few deep technologies that we will one day look at and think about: How did we live without it?” – Cook said in the fall of 2021. Indeed, if by 2030 smartphones can make their way into the history museum along with pagers and PDAs, the leading premium phone maker should have a plan B.

According to rumors, the gadget from Apple will be designed in the form of smart glasses or a virtual reality helmet like the Oculus Rift or Valve Index. The device allows you to view information about lenses and reconstruct three-dimensional objects in augmented reality. There is no guarantee that the first version of the headset will target the general user. Analysts point out the high cost of components and the ultimate cost of smart glasses, as well as the lack of an app store that can be used to unlock the device’s potential. However, in a few years the company may offer a simplified AR-headset model that will have small dimensions and allow you to work separately from the smartphone.

in the right brain

According to the bold predictions, people of the future will be able to stay in touch and receive information directly through gadgets integrated into the body or clothing. According to Valid Saad, a scientist at the Virginia Institute of Technology (USA), 6G in a broad sense will be replaced by “traditional frameworks with smart and adaptive protocols.” The report’s author predicts that the new technology will be the first wireless protocol to allow data to be transferred directly to the user’s brain, not to the device. In this case, mobile implants can replace smartphones. Saad sees the 5G protocol as a transitional standard that will show consumers and businesses what existing telecommunications networks are capable of.

One of the most mentioned in media initiatives in the field of implants is Neuralink Ilona Maska. The neurotechnology company, founded in 2016, offers to use special interfaces to interact with the outside world. Although Neuralink now aims to create a tool for the comfortable existence of the disabled, it aims to “heal the person” in the future.

The brain-machine interface described by the engineers is based on electrodes placed next to neurons that can capture and decode information at the cellular level. The device allows you to interact with a computer by controlling the mouse cursor or literally typing text with the power of thought. If you imagine, you can imagine how in your skull is a device that connects to a wireless network and allows you to download information directly to the brain. The need for any traditional device disappears, because the neuro-interface will project an image in front of the user’s eyes and receive signals from a person with which he can interact with other people, solve certain problems, control smart home devices.

While Neuralink is in testing on animals, the company is chipping away at monkeys and promising that new interfaces will be implemented in humans in the near future. Elon Musk recently said that his company needs engineers who develop smartphones and smartwatches: “The complexity of Neuralink devices is similar to smartwatches (just difficult!).

All the same

However, the mass abandonment of smartphones or the placement of implants in all people on the planet by 2030 still seems like a very ambitious prospect. Despite the development of the segment of devices, artificial intelligence, audio input systems, many analysts believe that in the next decade the smartphone will not go down in history, but will serve as a complement to new devices. The maximum integration of man into the metaworld also requires maximum openness – many, knowing the insecurity of networks and gadgets, are unlikely to implant a chip in the brain or open up to a completely unknown machine. If the device is to be placed on the human body for data exchange, how can more conscious use of gadgets be ensured?

Many futurists believe that in ten years humanity can count on the maximum mass distribution of smart glasses and sophisticated smartphones, which will replace existing devices. Such wearable devices would be an inadequate link between conventional communication tools and body-integrated systems. The development of virtual and augmented reality devices will show how much of repetitive actions such as texting, printing documents or calling a taxi can be visualized, simplified and improved with new technologies.