A new study predicts that global water scarcity will increase, affecting 66% of the population from 2100, particularly in the Global South, and highlights the critical need to consider water quantity and quality in future water management strategies.

Latest research from Utrecht University recently published Nature Climate ChangeAn increase in water scarcity is predicted due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Using a complex global model of water quantity and quality, the study predicts an increase in clean water scarcity by the end of the century, which will disproportionately affect the population of the Global South.

People need clean water for drinking and sanitation, as well as for the production of food, energy and industrial goods. As communities and politicians grapple with water scarcity, researchers at Utrecht University aim to shed light on the growing global clean water crisis.

Current and future water scarcity

The authors predict current and future global water scarcity using state-of-the-art model simulations of water quantity and quality. Chief writer Dr. “Climate change and socio-economic development have multifaceted impacts on the availability and quality of water resources and future water needs,” says Edward Jones. “Changes in these three aspects are critical to assessing future water scarcity.”

The research shows that 55 percent of the world’s population now lives in regions where clean water is scarce for at least one month a year. “By the end of the century, that figure could reach 66%,” says Jones.

Strong regional differences in future water scarcity

Although global water scarcity is expected to increase in the future, the changes and their consequences will not be experienced equally in every region of the world. For example, future increases in water scarcity in Western Europe and North America will be concentrated in only a few months of the year, depending primarily on water availability. In contrast, increases in water scarcity in developing countries tend to be more common in space and persist throughout much of the year.

Jones notes: “The increase in future impacts is greatest in the Global South. “This is often caused by a combination of rapid population and economic growth, climate change and deterioration in water quality.”

Quality: The invisible part of water scarcity

Although water quality is critical to safe water use, it remains an underrepresented component in water scarcity assessments. “Previous assessments mostly focused solely on water quantity,” explains Jones. “But the safe use of water also depends on its quality.”

Therefore, the main aim of this study was also to normalize the inclusion of water quality in water scarcity assessments and the development of management strategies to alleviate water scarcity.

Jones concludes: “Lack of clean water poses a systemic risk to both people and ecosystems that is increasingly difficult to ignore. Our study highlights that to turn the tide of the global water crisis, we need to focus on eliminating water pollution as well as significantly reducing water demand.” ”