He European Parliament is preparing for election night this Sunday, which will bring new composition of the House for the next five years of the legislaturePolls predict a landslide victory for the right, represented by the European People’s Party (EPP), with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the headliner.

The EPP will have almost as many seats as it has in the outgoing European Parliament: the popular ones will receive 183 deputies (four less than now) only 720 seats, according to aggregate surveys Europe chooses.

Following the popular polls, two other groups show parliamentary support for von der Leyen’s executive in this legislature, although they fall lower: in second place are the Social Democrats (S&D) on average 136 places (11 less), The Liberals (Renew Europe) are in third place with 88 seats (10 fewer).

Thanks to these forecasts traditional two-party system formed by the people’s and social democrats, which, until the last elections in 2019, always had an absolute majority in the European Parliament, will record the worst result in its history, and I’ll need other allies again, like liberals, approve laws.

Greens, also open to agreements, they will drop to 56 places (down 11) and they will be the sixth force behind the two far-right groups, while the left will be seventh and hold on with 37 MEPs (one more than now).

The far right will expand its presence

The main news of the evening may be the predictable rise of far-right parties, although their disunity in two different groups – the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group – reduces their influence in the European Parliament.

EuropeElects places The ECR is in fourth place with 74 seats (12 more than now) and the ID is in fifth place with 67 deputies. (down 9, partly due to Germany’s expulsion of the Alternative group due to statements by its top list relativizing the role of the SS in Nazism).

General, Both groups together will add 141 seats. and they will turn the far right into the second political family of the European Parliament, ahead of the social democrats.

This is what the French far-right leader is striving for. Marine Le Pen (from ID), after the proposal of the Italian campaign Georgia Meloni (from ECR) unite their forces, which could still grow to 165 seats if they shelter Viktor Orban’s Hungarian Fidesz party or save the Alternative for Germany.

Without even the need to create a single group, which has been tried unsuccessfully in the past, but simply closer and more organized cooperation. This would allow them to get closer to the “blocking majority”.

Formation of groups

All the pools about what will be arithmetically possible in the next European Parliament are designed for groups existing in this legislative body, but the reality is that after the European elections The period of formation of political groupings will be more important than ever.

Seven groups of the outgoing European Parliament they could win or lose both deputies and delegations of countries, and they may even disappear or mutate into other new families.

The rules state that in order to create a political group it is necessary there must be at least 23 deputies and include party representatives from at least a quarter of EU countries.

Once the groups have been decided in principle and the parliament has been formed, the 720 MEPs will have in their hands the first major decision of the legislature: reject or approve a candidate for the post of President of the European Commission are appointed by EU presidents and prime ministers by qualified majority.

If no agreement is reached in July, A second attempt at investiture will be made in September. (either von der Leyen, running for a second term, or another candidate), and in October and November the European Parliament must approve or reject the names of all European Commissioners.

Which countries allocate the most seats?

Germany (96 seats), France (81), Italy (76), Spain (61) and Poland (53).) are the five countries with the largest populations in the European Union, and together they appoint more than half of the European Parliament: 375 of the hemisphere’s 720 seats.

Spain is one of the “Big Five” and is a country where the two-party system of the People’s and Social Democrats meets the European elections with great guarantees, since PP and PSOE become the two parties with the most seats. in their European families, according to Europe chooses.

In the outgoing European Parliament four out of ten members of the European Parliament are women, while the average age of parliamentarians is 50 years.

(according to information from EFE)