Asteroid Apophis is of great concern to the scientific community, could collide with Earth in 2029, the future of humanity is at risk, we need a true Armageddon style mission to protect ourselves, etc. I don’t need to explain it so you know what I’m talking about, do I? Well, yes, it’s happened again, only this time we’re not even talking about an immediate “threat” like what happened with the 2024 MK, 2023 CJ1, 2009 JF1, and 2011 ES4, among others, but one that occurs in 2029.

For those who don’t know what I’m talking about, in the last few hours there have been reports and publications on social media that warn of asteroid, 2004 MN4, also called asteroid 99942 and Apophis (in reference to the serpent that embodied evil in Egyptian mythology) could collide with Earth on April 13, 2029. And in this case, we are talking about an asteroid with the necessary dimensions to pose a formidable threat to life on our planet.

Since its identification in 2004 Apophis was included in the lists of the most dangerous asteroids for our planet, although that doesn’t mean it’s a certainty that they’ll eventually collide. These lists are used to determine which objects need to be watched more carefully in case of possible events that could change their orbits, which could be dangerous.

A prediction of the effect of Earth’s gravity on the orbit of Apophis as it approaches in April 2029. You can view the full animation here. Credit: ESA.

And why is Apophis being talked about now? It has been known for some time that it will approach our planet again in the coming years, specifically on December 29, 2027, September 12, 2028 and the mentioned date of April 13, 2029. The main difference between this last date and the so-called previous one has to do with the distance to which it approaches. You can clearly see the reason for concern in the following table:

The distance to which it will approach in 2029 (and in this case it makes more sense to do without the quotation marks) really requires us to pay special attention to its evolution in the coming years, because any change in its current orbit At the very least, whatever it is, may modify it substantially, which would force you to recalculate the route a posteriori to reassess the risks. In other words, it is important to monitor it very carefully. And that’s it We are talking about an asteroid of more than considerable dimensions, with an estimated diameter of 335 meters..

The collision caused by DART and Dimorphos in September 2022 served as a demonstration the huge impact that an eventuality of this type can have (collisions, explosions, etc.) in the orbit of an asteroid with a diameter of around 160 meters, just under half the diameter of Apophis, from which we can conclude that this type of circumstance, but also others, e.g. influence In this sense, the gravity of bodies can also have effects, to which he approaches.

Observations of Apophis taken in 2021. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech and NSF/AUI/GBO.

This brings me back to the question I asked earlier, why is this asteroid being talked about now? Because The European Space Agency has announced a project to evaluate the effects of Earth’s atmosphere on Apophis as it approaches Earth in 2029., for which the ship RAMSES will serve. This is how ESA describes the mission:

«ESA’s RAMSES spacecraft will encounter Apophis before it passes Earth and will accompany the asteroid during the flyby to watch it being deformed and changed by our planet’s gravity.

For the first time in history, nature brings us one and performs the experiment herself. All we have to do is watch as Apophis is stretched and compressed by intense tidal forces that can trigger ground motions and other disturbances, revealing new material from beneath the surface.»

So although some media talk about the “huge concern” of the scientific community, the truth is that the European Space Agency confirms that a unique opportunity with great scientific valuebecause it will provide first-hand information that will undoubtedly serve to improve the calculations on the paths of asteroids that approach any celestial body that is capable of influencing them due to their gravity.

So in short Apophis’ approach to Earth in 2029 poses no risk of collision, the consensus among the scientific community is that it will pass close, but no more. And thanks to the RAMSES mission, it will be a unique opportunity to get first-hand information of enormous value.

Opening image: ESA. / More information on Apophis approaches (past and future) to Earth: JPS-CalTech-NASA.