Growth in life expectancy has slowed since 1990; the longest-lived populations showed an average increase of only 6.5 years, indicating a possible biological limit. New research highlights that, thanks to advances in the science of aging, the focus is shifting from simply extending life to improving quality of life.

Life expectancy increased dramatically in the 19th and 20th centuries, thanks to healthier diets, medical advances, and many other improvements in quality of life. But that growth rate, which nearly doubled in the 20th century, has slowed significantly over the past three decades, according to a new study from the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Despite frequent advances in medicine and health care, life expectancy at birth among the world’s longest-living populations has increased by an average of only six and a half years since 1990, an analysis shows. This rate of recovery falls far short of some scientists’ expectations that life expectancy would increase faster this century and that most people born today would live to be 100.

Limits of human life

Article Aging of Nature “The Irrationality of Radical Human Life Extension in the 21st Century” presents new evidence that humans are approaching the biological limit of life. Lead author SJ Olshansky of the UIC School of Public Health said the biggest gains in longevity have already come from successful efforts to combat disease. This leaves the deleterious effects of aging as the main obstacle to further expansion.

“Most people now living to older ages are living in a time created by medicine,” said Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics. “But these medical patches provide less longevity, even though they occur at a higher rate, meaning that the era of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over.”

Olshansky also added that this also means that further extending life expectancy by reducing disease could be harmful if those extra years are not healthy. “We must now focus on efforts that slow aging and prolong health,” he said. Life expectancy is a relatively new metric that measures the number of years a person is not only alive but healthy.

The analysis, conducted in collaboration with researchers from the University of Hawaii, Harvard University and the University of California, Los Angeles, is the latest chapter in a three-decade-long debate about the potential limits of human lifespan.

In 1990 Olshansky published an article. science magazineHere he argued that humans were approaching the life expectancy ceiling of about 85 years and that the most significant advances had already been made. Others predicted that advances in medicine and health care would accelerate trends from the 20th to the 21st centuries.

Evidence supporting the slowdown

Thirty-four years later, the evidence presented in the study Aging of Nature 2024 supports the idea that life expectancy growth will continue to slow as more people suffer the harmful and permanent effects of aging. The study looked at data from the eight countries with the longest life expectancy, Hong Kong, and the United States, one of the few countries that saw a decline in life expectancy during the period studied.

“Our results overturn the conventional wisdom that our species’ natural lifespan is somewhere on the horizon; life expectancy exceeds our current lifespan,” Olshansky said. he said. “Instead, it’s behind us—in the range of 30 to 60 years. We’ve now proven that even though medical progress is occurring at a dizzying pace, modern medicine is delivering smaller and smaller improvements in lifespan.”

More people may reach age 100 or older this century, Olshansky said, but those cases will remain outliers that won’t increase life expectancy much further.

This finding flies in the face of products and industries such as insurance and asset management businesses that make calculations based on the assumption that most people will live to be 100.

“This is very bad advice because only a small percentage of the population will live that long in this century,” Olshansky said.

But he said this discovery does not rule out that medicine and science could bring additional benefits. The authors argue that there may be a more immediate potential for improving quality of life rather than extending life in old age. More investment should be made in the biology of aging, Gerosauk, which may contain the seeds of the next wave of health and life extension.

“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky said. “There are many opportunities for improvement: reducing risk factors, working to eliminate inequalities, and encouraging people to lead healthier lifestyles; all of these can help people live longer and healthier lives. This glass ceiling on health and longevity is broken down by gerology and the effects of aging.” “We can overcome it with slowing down efforts.”