The asteroid, named after the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and disorder, may not pose a threat to Earth, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a threat to Earth itself. When asteroid 99942 Apophis makes a flyby of Earth in 2029, the gravitational interaction between the two objects is likely to significantly alter the asteroid’s surface.

This is the conclusion of planetary scientist Ronald Ballouz of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory; He believes his results may explain why some asteroids have a younger surface than assumed if they had not had time to fall into space.

99942 Apophis is a challenging asteroid. Since its discovery in 2004, scientists have predicted that the 335-meter (1,100-foot) boulder’s orbit could potentially put it on a collision course with Earth as it approaches in April 2029. He gave us a good scare!

Fortunately, it turned out that everything was just a fear. Scientists counted the numbers and counted them and then counted them again just to be absolutely sure. 99942 Apophis will fly by less than 32,000 kilometers (20,000 miles) from Earth in 2029; However, there is no possibility of it hitting our Earth in the next century.

What about 99942 Apophis? Will it remain intact? As Balluz and his team observed, near-Earth asteroids like 99942 Apophis have two characteristics. Their surfaces are loose and gravelly; and appears to be less affected by space weather than asteroids that are not subject to planetary flybys.

Interesting. Most asteroids are thought to form from material that condensed in the early days of the Solar System, 4.5 billion years ago. They should have been flying relatively unchanged since then. That’s why we send probes to take samples from them; their material is believed to be the repository of the primordial material from which planets are formed.

But just being in space can make a difference. Solar wind, solar radiation, and micrometeorite bombardment combine to bypass the unprotected surface atmosphere; asteroids should be fair game. Balluz and his team wondered whether there was a connection between the youthful appearance of near-Earth asteroids and their near-Earth oddities.

To find out, they simulated the passage of Apophis 2029 99942 to Earth. We don’t know the exact shape of the asteroid, but our data suggest it is a two-lobed, perhaps double-bound object similar to the potato-shaped 25143 Itokawa.

So they took Itokawa as a base model and changed the composition of the model asteroid to see what would happen if they launched it past the model Earth. And they found that Earth’s gravity may indeed have a noticeable effect on 99942 Apophis.

In the near future, the asteroid will begin to impact Earth when it approaches Earth at closest distance. 99942 Apophis will be hit by a series of short-lived seismic events as it passes by Earth. These seismic events will be detectable and will cause accelerations on the surface similar to the asteroid’s gravity.

The patterns formed by the rise and fall of rocks must be instantly detected by devices on the ground.

The second effect will be longer term. As an asteroid approaches Earth, gravitational interaction can change the asteroid’s rotation. Over time, as the asteroid continues to orbit the Sun in a new spin, its surface may shift and renew itself over tens of thousands of years.

According to a 2010 paper, the maximum distance an asteroid can travel to Earth when its spin changes is 16 Earth radii, or approximately 102,000 kilometers. The estimated flight distance of 99942 Apophis will be much closer, so the likelihood of surface change is high. We may not be able to see whether these changes occur, but we can measure changes in the asteroid’s rotation.

To be honest, we’re pretty determined to just walk past it. The asteroid will be visible to the naked eye as it passes Earth, giving us a rare opportunity to go beyond waving at it and study it in more detail than we normally could. We can only hope that the souvenirs the asteroid takes with it will be pleasant. We don’t want him to come back as an asteroid boxer ready to give us something. The study, published in The Planetary Science Journal, is available on arXiv.