Human-caused climate change has increased the strength of Atlantic hurricanes by nearly 18 miles per hour (29 kilometers per hour) in the past six years, according to a recent study. As reported in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, in most of the 40 storms analyzed, the extra energy from warmer oceans caused them to develop into an entire category of hurricanes.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Category 5 storm causes more than 400 times the damage of a minimum Category 1 hurricane, more than 140 times the damage of a minimum Category 3 hurricane, and more than five times the damage of a minimum Category 3 hurricane. greater minimum storm category 4.

Significant increase in wind speed

In three storms, including this month’s Hurricane Rafael, climate change increased wind speeds so much that wind speeds rose to category two storms. According to the study’s authors, this is not about the increase in storms, but rather the increase in power from the strongest storms.

“We know that the intensity of these storms often causes much greater damage,” said lead author Daniel Guilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central, which studies global warming. “Damage increases with intensity.”

Hurricane force in warm climates

This effect was particularly noticeable during stronger storms, including those that reached the top of the Saffir-Simpson storm intensity scale: Category five, according to the study’s authors. While the study focused on storms between 2019 and 2023, the researchers also examined recently named storms, the number of which increased this year due to climate change.

“There were two Category 5 storms here in 2024,” Guilford said. “Our analysis shows that Category 5 storms would not occur if it were not for human-caused climate change.”

Visible tornadoes gaining strength

This year’s three most destructive storms – Beryl, Helen and Milton – increased by 18 mph (29 km/h), 16 mph (26 km/h) and 24 mph (39 km/h), respectively, due to a changing climate . the writers said. Imperial College London climatologist Frederica Otto, who coordinated the WWA team, found in a separate World Weather Association (WWA) study that Helen’s lethal wind speeds increased by about 21 kilometers per hour; which was close to that and praised the work of Climate Central.

“From a fundamental standpoint, it makes perfect sense for us to add more energy to the system,” NOAA chief Rick Spinrad said at UN climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“The changes will be reflected in what we’re already seeing. You’re looking at Hurricane Helen, which is massive, 500 miles in diameter. We’re going to see changes in the speed of these storms. We’re going to see a change in terms of Hurricane Milton producing so many tornadoes.”

Consistent patterns in recent years

Since 2019, eight storms (Umberto in 2019, Zeta in 2020, Sam and Larry in 2021, Earl in 2022, Franklin in 2023, and Isaac and Rafael in 2024) have experienced wind speeds of at least 40 km/h. hours increased. . Umberto and Zeta made the biggest gains, up 31 mph (50 km/h) each. According to Guilford, in 85% of the storms studied over the past six years, the authors saw a clear signature of climate change in the storm’s severity.

Warm oceans and hurricane force

The main fuel of hurricanes is warm water. The warmer the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico get, the more potential energy is available for storms. Other factors, such as strong crosswinds and dry air, can weaken tornadoes. Guilford explained that water in hurricane-prone areas has increased by an average of 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 to 1.6 degrees Celsius) and 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.2 degrees Celsius) due to climate change.

Warmer water linked to stronger storms

This information comes from scientifically validated methods that Climate Central uses to regularly track how much the oceans are warming due to the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas. Experts use computer simulations to create a fictional world without human-caused warming and then compare it to current reality, explaining the differences with greenhouse gases.

They also take into account other factors, such as reduced sulfate pollution from shipping, which slightly inhibits warming before skies become clearer. To understand how warmer waters lead to stronger storms, the authors examined a parameter called potential intensity, which is essentially the speed limit for any storm depending on environmental conditions.

Expert insight and implications for the future

MIT hurricane expert and meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who was the first person to measure potential intensity, was not involved in the study but said the results were significant. He said this showed an increase in the strength of the storm he predicted 37 years ago. Previous studies have shown that climate change is causing hurricanes to intensify faster and move slower, resulting in more precipitation.