More than three-quarters of Earth’s land has become steadily drier in recent years, despite an increase in devastating floods and storms in some parts of the world, according to a stunning new analysis published by UN scientists. A report published by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification shows that approximately 77.6% of Earth’s land area experienced drier conditions in the three decades to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period.

Over the same three decades, drylands have expanded by approximately 4.3 million km² (almost a third the size of India) and now cover 40.6% of all land on Earth, excluding Antarctica. During this period, approximately 7.6% of the world’s land area (an area larger than Canada) exceeded drought thresholds. Many have shifted from wet lands to dry lands, with profound consequences for agriculture, ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.

High emissions scenarios and dryland expansion

The report warns that if the world does not limit greenhouse gas emissions, 3 percent of today’s wet areas could turn into drier areas by the end of this century. Under high emissions scenarios, arid lands would be found in the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, northeastern Brazil, southeastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of Southern Africa, and Southern Africa. Australia.

A study called “Global Land Drying Threat: Regional and Global Drought Trends and Future Projections» Presented at the 16th UNCCD Conference (COP16) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This was the largest UN conference ever held on land and the first in the Middle East to be severely affected by the effects of drought.

“This analysis finally resolves the uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends,” said UNCCD Secretary-General Ibrahim Tiaw. “The drought crisis has been documented with scientific clarity for the first time, revealing an existential threat affecting billions of people around the world.”

Climate change and drylands

According to the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, which wrote the report, the main reason for this change is human-induced climate change. Emissions from electricity generation, transportation, industry and changes in land use are warming the planet and altering rainfall patterns, evaporation rates and plant life; These conditions contribute to increased drought.

Data from global drought indices, which track long-term changes in the environment, reveal significant drying trends. The hardest-hit areas include nearly all of Europe (95.9% of land area), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (especially East Asia), and Central Africa.

Meanwhile, less than a quarter (22.4%) of the planet’s land area is irrigated; Some positive trends were seen in the central United States, the Atlantic coast of Angola, and parts of Southeast Asia. Drylands in general are expanding worldwide, pushing ecosystems and societies into life-threatening problems.

Increasing impact on human communities

The report stated that South Sudan and Tanzania are the countries with the highest percentage of land converted to dry land, while China is the country with the largest total area converted from non-arid land to dry land. As of 2020, 2.3 billion people, more than a quarter of the world’s population, live in these expanding arid areas. Drought-induced land degradation, known as desertification, poses a serious threat to human well-being and ecological stability.

Without action, the future could be even bleaker. Under the worst-case emissions scenario, up to five billion people could live in drylands by the end of the century. Such a scenario would mean soil depletion, water scarcity and ecosystem destruction for large groups of people.

Forced migration, currently seen in some of the world’s driest regions, is one of its most immediate consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable and agriculture declines, families and communities often have no choice but to relocate, exacerbating social and political problems around the world.

Cascading effects of arid lands

The cascading effects of increasing drought go far beyond agriculture and water scarcity. The report warns that one-fifth of the entire world could undergo severe ecosystem transformations, from forests to grasslands and other dramatic changes, leading to the extinction of many of the world’s plant and animal species. Droughts also cause a range of other problems, from falling GDP (especially in Africa), to increased forest fires and even health crises, especially for children and women.

Global drying trend

Overcoming the threat of drought requires not only the recognition of science; it also requires concerted political action and comprehensive adaptation measures. The report calls for improving drought monitoring and integrating these indicators into drought monitoring systems, promoting sustainable land use, investing in water-efficient technologies, and increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities.

Experts also emphasize the need for international frameworks and cooperation, emphasizing that human rights, social justice and good governance should guide these collective efforts.

The global drying trend is essentially creating a new narrative: As we confront climate change, we must recognize that once-fertile lands are irreversibly turning into arid regions. Successfully adapting to this reality will determine whether we can secure a sustainable and equitable future in a world increasingly defined by water scarcity and ever-expanding drylands.