After 13 years of war, in which hundreds of armed groups confronted the state and each other, The regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen.. The price was brutal: half a million dead; the country’s infrastructure has been destroyed along with the growth of the illegal economy; internal displacement of 12 million people and another 6.5 million became refugees.

Assad’s dictatorship continued the dictatorship of his father. Hafez al AssadPresident from 1971 to 2000, represented Arab Socialist Baath Party. Father and son ruled the country with a heavy hand: torture, murder and disappearance. The Assad family is part of the Alawite minority, a Shiite branch of Islam that accounts for about 10% of the population. Other religious identities in the country are Sunni Muslims (58.4%), Christians (15.2%), Kurds (10%), Druze and others (6%).

The Alawite minority received advantages due to other identities. The Assads ruled by a formula of pacts, benefits, co-optation and repression, which in the 2000s was influenced in particular by the impoverishment of the Sunni population. The outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring 2011 in the region caused fall of repressive governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Fearing the same fate, Bashar al-Assad responded with brutal violence. In response, parts of the Sunni population organized armed groups that rebelled against the government.

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The groups that initially rebelled came into conflict with each other over ideological and identity lines. Added to this were radical Islamist groups that eventually became part of or merged with Islamic State (or ISIS), active in Syria since 2013. It is believed that despite the group’s defeat, its operational units remain in Syria. Syria and Iraq.

On the other hand, the Kurds, also repressed by the Assad regime, responded partisans and formed an autonomous enclave near the border with Turkey.

Foreign interference

Soon after the outbreak of the civil war, various foreign governments began to provide economic and military support or create various armed groups. Christopher Phillips explains in his book “Battlefield” that “(A)s throughout the war years Syrians increasingly lost the ability to determine their own destiny because foreign powers intervened, motivated by fear or opportunism.”

Iran had political ties to the Assad regime and has intervened with weapons, funds and capabilities to reform the Syrian army since 2011. Also due to the proximity between identities, the Lebanese military-religious organization Hezbollah sent troops to Syria to protect the government. Iran also formed Afghan-Pakistani Shia militias. Armed Shiite groups from Iraq and Kurdish groups from Turkey joined the war.

The governments of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia contributed weapons and funds to these groups. The Ankara government has made it its mission to stop the Kurdish uprising from spreading to the minority of the same identity on its territory. Likewise, the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan He unsuccessfully asked Assad to agree to negotiate the reforms the uprising demanded. Thus, he became disillusioned with his ambitions to influence the Arab Spring. Qatar also sought to play a leading role in the regional uprising and, despite Assad’s backlash, contributed to support for radical armed groups in Syria.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, feared that radical armed organizations would ally with their enemies, Muslim Brothers (a transnational Sunni Islamist organization), which later came to power (briefly) in Egypt. Phillips notes that by the end of 2015, more than 30,000 people from 70 countries, including Europeans and the United States, were fighting in Syria.

Washington and Moscow

As for the great powers, President Barack Obama maintained a cautious policy of limited intervention, including a never-fulfilled threat that he would prevent Assad from using chemical weapons against civilians, which happened in 2013. Both Obama and Donald Trump During his first presidency they focused on deploying a limited number of troops to fight the Islamic State in Syria and support Kurdish rebels, but without active participation in the civil war.

Russian President, Vladimir Putinhe thought he could get geopolitical benefits in the Middle East if he intervenes and determines the course of the war in Syria in favor of Assad. The Russian government also feared that a victory for radical Islamists in Syria would have a domino effect on communities of the same identity in Russia. The country’s Muslim population numbers nearly 15 million, and Chechnya has been at war with Moscow. In September 2015, Russia launched its first air attacks, an offensive that continued until several days ago.

In the diplomatic sphere, the United Nations facilitated negotiations that failed, while Iran, Turkey and Russia promoted other negotiations in Astana, Kazakhstan, which also failed. Growing confrontation between Moscow and Washington, aggravated by War in Ukraine from 2022.during which Syrian militias went over to fight on the Russian side, blocked diplomatic channels. For its part, the EU provided humanitarian aid, assistance to refugees, promoted dialogue between sectors of the Syrian opposition and imposed sanctions against the Assad regime.

Signs

Perhaps the first sign that the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime was near was the terrible earthquake that devastated the country in February 2023. The tragedy highlighted the state’s failure to respond to both a humanitarian emergency and reconstruction efforts. Territorial fragmentation, with about 30% of the country’s territory in the hands of armed groups organized in various coalitions, also indicates a lack of control on Assad’s part.

The second indicator was set in 2023 attacks by armed groups from Syria and Iraq on the bases of 900 US soldiers deployed in the two countries, as well as the US and allied response against the attackers in 2024. For its part, Israel carried out, especially after the start of the Gaza offensive, attacks on armed groups in Syrian territory and on vehicles that were allegedly transporting weapons for Hamas.

Since Assad’s fall, the Israeli government, which distrusts rebel leader Jolani’s radical past, has ordered attacks on sites it considers weapons storage centers. chemical weapons and deployed forces in adjacent Syria with Golan Heights. This territory was occupied by Israel in the 1967 war.

Group offensive Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, surprised with its speed, but this experienced politician and military leader has long established alliances with armed organizations and tribal leaders. Jolani not only moderated his speech after renouncing al-Qaeda and his ties to it. ISISbut would know how to recognize signs of change in the Middle East, offering each side the guarantees it needs.

End

Jolani’s skillful policies were able to develop within a number of changes over the past year. First of all, the Israeli offensive of October 2023 weakened and almost completely destroyed the Hamas leadership in Gaza. It also weakened Iran and largely destroyed Hezbollah’s military capabilities, eliminating some of its leaders. At the same time, it struck Houthi militias in Yemen and killed Hamas leaders and senior Iranian officials in various countries in the region, including Syria and Iran. For the leaders of Iran and Hezbollah, support for Syria has faded into the background.

Second, The war in Ukraine is keeping Russia very busy. Faced with the prospect of an agreement promoted by the incoming Trump administration and US and British permission for Kyiv to use its long-range weapons to strike Russia, Moscow is redoubling its military efforts. As a result, Syria has lost weight in Putin’s foreign policy.

Third, at this stage, the Turkish government, a central player in the offensive in Syria, which supports the coalition led by Hayat Tahir al-Sham, is seeking to play its role in rebuilding Syria and wants to send home three million Syrian refugees. which cause internal problems. This plan will require reaching an agreement with the new Syrian rulers over the Kurdish guerrillas.

Fourth, probably Abu Mohamed al Jolani sends a signal to Israel that it will not question the occupation of the Golan Heights. This is exactly the policy the Assads followed. Likewise, it will become closer to Saudi Arabia, indicating that the new Syria will focus on reconstruction rather than destabilizing its neighbors.

These issues were probably discussed these days between Iran, Russia, Turkey, three parties who have good relations, and Hezbollah. The diagnosis might be that the Syrian army is demoralized, that there is no control over the country and that Assad is no longer useful. At the same time it is necessary rethink positions in the face of Israeli regional offensivewhich will be more actively supported by the US from January, as well as the impact of the inevitable rapprochement between Washington and Moscow.

No matter how it is discussed, the future of Syria and the region will remain unstable. Several hundred armed groups in this country will fight for their interests, and the continuation of civil war in other forms cannot be ruled out. Previously desired by many and Now everyone is left to the mercy of fate, the future of Syria is unpredictable.

RFI