To say there’s something surprising about Elon Musk’s opening Twitter soap opera is a bit of an understatement, because the process itself was a surprise and the billionaire tried from his first steps, whether consciously or unconsciously, to turn it into a kind of media spectacle, which personally reminded me a little of grotesque as a genre. Or to charlotada, put it in castizo.

So the last few months news about new features being tested was interspersed with other progress information (or, almost better said, failures) in what was supposed to be one of the most media-driven operations in the technology sector for this year 2022. However, after the flood of information, the pace slowed down considerably, almost suggesting that everything was going well. and that sooner or later Elon Musk will take control of Twitter.

Nothing is further from reality. Just a few days ago, we were wondering if everything was moving forward, or if Musk was thinking about a return. And we weren’t wrong, because just a few hours later it bombed, Elon Musk withdrew his offer to buy and subsequently he put the future of Twitter, its operation, and his own in the hands of the courts that they will almost certainly have to participate in this process.

And so it is that with the reversal that Musk announced, The future is hugely uncertain for all parties, but it looks particularly bad for billionaires, that he might have to face some really dire consequences after acting the way he did. And when I say crappy, I mostly mean very, very expensive. Maybe a billion dollars, but also maybe a lot more.

As we told you yesterday, Bret Taylor, president of Twitter, confirmed that the board of directors of the social network intends to perform the operation under the originally agreed terms. In other words, it doesn’t look like they’ll stop at claiming the billion dollars that both sides have promised to pay if they don’t complete the operation. And why not? Why does the current board seem to lack it?

We’ll have the answer to that question tomorrow, Monday, when the markets open and we see Twitter’s stock price. What many analysts expect is a substantial drop, which could boost the stock’s value it may even drop below $25 per share and more worryingly, said devaluation has been sustained over time (the titles were trading at $36.81 at the end of Friday). Let’s remember that they were valued at $54.20 in the purchase agreement.

Legal battles at this level are always uncertain, so outcomes range from Musk being able to walk away with no bribes and Twitter seeing its value halved, to the billionaire finally being forced to buy Twitter on terms originally agreed upon. that the value of the social network has halved. With all the possibilities in between.

Most analysts believe that Musk is in the worst position, because his argument about bots and lack of cooperation from Twitter seems quite difficult to prove, if true, and his position is even more threatened by a number of circumstances outside this operation, but without a doubt , Yes, they affected their personal image and property and assets of their companies. For now, strange as it may sound, Musk should keep his fingers crossed that Twitter’s stock doesn’t fall into the abyss that some analysts are predicting.

The shock wave could spread to other companies involved in the operation, and that they expected to collect “their share” of its closure. These will undoubtedly put pressure on both sides to return to the negotiating table and close the deal. But the argument they’re using, which suggests Musk can ask for a price cut, doesn’t seem to get a positive response from the board.

Depending on who you ask, if he loses, Musk might have to pay a billion dollars and be left with nothing, he might have to pay Twitter compensation for the loss in value of his stock and be left with nothing… or you might end up having to buy Twitter, i when you feel like you don’t want to anymore. And yes, I say it seems because with Elon Musk, it’s already more than clear that you can’t take anything for sure.

With information from Yahoo! Finance/NBC News