Global IT companies predict that smartphones will gradually disappear from the market – not because of the shortage of semiconductors, but because of the transition to a new way of communicating and receiving information. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark said that in the near future humanity will abandon traditional methods of communication. We explain what the future technical revolution is all about, what telecommunications devices are already on the market and what prevents us from communicating without intermediaries such as a smartphone or smartwatch.

In the era of the development of 5G networks, the smartphone remains the most convenient tool for accessing information. Most of the phones released in 2022 have support for working on new generation networks. However, Nokia believes that the 5G era will end at the same time as the smartphone era. Pekka Lundmark predicts that the transition to new communication methods will be associated with the emergence of 6G in the next decade, by 2030 at the latest. “At that time, the smartphone as we know it today would not be the most common interface,” said the company’s senior executive. According to the speaker, many new devices will be integrated directly into the user’s body. Lundmark’s idea is supported by Google, which they believe people will choose high-tech gadgets based on augmented reality technology, which is a more convenient and faster means of communication.

IT giants’ forecasts may relate to priorities and impact in the mobile technology market. In the zero years, Nokia lost its main phone maker status, transferring its share to Apple, Samsung, and many Chinese companies. Currently, the Finnish company is focused on the development and support of new telecommunications networks. It is considered one of the main players in the 5G market. Google is also engaged in the manufacture of smartphones, but cannot fully compete with the leading device manufacturers. According to the latest StatCounter report, the share of Google Pixel phones in the North American market is 2.32%, and it does not exceed a statistical margin of error in the global market.

It is clear that companies that have lost or have not yet gained much influence in the market are more actively involved in the development of new technologies. For example, inferior to Samsung in the production of expensive smartphones, Apple presented the Fold device in 2019 – the Korean company discovered for itself the segment of complex devices and became its leader.

Should traditional phones be abandoned, Nokia will introduce support for 6G networks, which can be hundreds or even thousands of times faster than existing networks, according to Pekki Lundmark. According to rumors, Google is trying to enter the advanced devices market, but is examining the devices of the new generation. In mid-May, the company demonstrated the concept of smart glasses, which allows you to instantly translate a foreign language and display it in the form of text on the lenses of the device.

The company already has experience in the production of similar gadgets: in 2014, the Google Glass headset entered the market. According to experts, the device was ahead of its time and failed in the mass market due to its high cost. Smart glasses have remained a niche device.

What will take its place?

The closest substitutes for smartphones now seem to be smart glasses or virtual and augmented reality headsets. Research firm TrendForce predicts that the VR/AR headset market will reach 19 million units by 2023. Already in 2021, the global supply of such devices reached almost 10 million pieces. Experts believe that the development of the segment will be influenced by consumer interest in meta-universes. There are several headset models currently on the market, led by Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 and Meta’s Oculus Quest 2.

Currently, smart glasses are used for new experiences in video games and by employees of some companies that require visualization of the production process and fast data exchange. Dozens of companies and startups are engaged in the development of next-generation headphones. For example, Lenovo ThinkReality A3 glasses help create a virtual workplace using AR technology. Engineers, designers, doctors can create up to five workspaces, increasing productivity and mobility. Introduced at CES 2020, the Panasonic headset offers the possibility to visualize information in Ultra HD resolution with HDR support – thanks to the design, the glasses are practically not felt in the head of the wearer.

The CREAL initiative uses light field technology, where the glasses can reflect three-dimensional objects with true optical depth. This helps the eyes perceive virtual objects more naturally at different distances. Vuzix’s smart glasses feature a pair of RGB projectors the size of a regular pencil eraser. This allowed the engineers to create a lightweight headset.

The supply of mixed reality headsets should motivate other mega companies to work in this direction. TrendForce analysts also believe that the growth of the segment will spur Apple to launch its own glasses soon with support for alternate reality. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, the American company has been developing smart glasses for a long time. Another official insider, Ming-Chi Ko, said that Apple has already developed several versions of the future headset.

The close attention shown to Tim Cook Corporation is explained by the fact that the company was able to shake up the device market and accelerate its development with an example. Now Apple’s main product is considered to be the iPhone, which revolutionized the beginning of the zeroes and marked a new era in the phone segment.

The company’s management has traditionally kept the development of future products a secret, but the IT giant’s top executives say they are interested in alternate reality devices. Rumor has it that a mixed reality headset could be as important to Tim Cook as the iPhone was to Steve Jobs in the 2000s. “I think AR is one of the very few deep technologies that we will one day look back at and think about: How did we live without it?” – said Cook in the fall of 2021. Indeed, if by 2030 smartphones can rank alongside pagers and pocket computers in the history museum, the leading premium phone maker should have a plan B.

According to rumors, the gadget from Apple will be designed in the form of smart glasses or a virtual reality helmet like the Oculus Rift or Valve Index. The device allows you to view information about lenses and reconstruct three-dimensional objects in augmented reality. It is not possible to guarantee that the first version of the headset will target the general user. Analysts point out the high cost of components and the ultimate cost of smart glasses, as well as the lack of an app store that can help unlock the device’s potential. However, in a few years the company may offer a simplified model of the AR headset, which will have small dimensions and allow it to work separately from the smartphone.

directly to the brain

According to the bold predictions, people of the future will be able to communicate and receive information directly with the help of gadgets integrated into the body or clothing. Broadly speaking, 6G will “replace traditional framework structures with intelligent and adaptive protocols,” according to Walid Saad, a scientist at the Virginia Institute of Technology (USA). The report’s author predicts that the new technology will be the first wireless communication protocol that will allow data to be transmitted directly to the user’s brain, not to the device. In this case, mobile implants can replace smartphones. Saad sees the 5G protocol as a transitional standard that will show consumers and businesses what speeds their existing telecommunications networks can deliver.

Elon Musk’s Neuralink is considered one of the most mentioned initiatives in the field of implants in the media. The neurotechnology company, founded in 2016, offers to use special interfaces to interact with the surrounding world. Although Neuralink currently aims to create a tool for people with disabilities to live comfortably, it will “heal people” in the future.

The brain-machine interface described by the engineers is based on electrodes placed next to neurons that can capture and decode information at the cellular level. The device allows you to interact with the computer by controlling the mouse cursor or literally typing text with the power of thought. If you imagine, you can imagine a device in the skull that connects to a wireless network and allows you to download information directly to the brain. Conventional devices are not needed, as the neuro-interface will project an image in front of the user’s eyes and receive signals from the person with which they can interact with other people, solve certain tasks and control the smart home. devices.

While Neuralink is in the testing phase on animals, the company is chipping monkeys and promising that the new interfaces will begin to be used on humans in the near future. Elon Musk recently said that his company needs engineers involved in the development of smartphones and smartwatches: “Neuralink devices are similar in complexity to a smartwatch (not just simple!)”.

All the same

However, the mass rejection of smartphones or the fact that by 2030 all people on the planet will be implanted with implants still seems like a very ambitious prospect. Despite the development of the devices, artificial intelligence and audio input systems segment, many analysts say that in the next decade the smartphone will not go down in history, but will serve as an addition to new devices. The maximum integration of a person into the upper universe also requires maximum openness – many people, knowing the insecurity of networks and gadgets, do not allow a chip to be inserted into their brain or completely opened to an unknown machine. If the device is to be placed on the human body for data exchange, how to make more conscious use of gadgets?

Many futurologists believe that within a decade humanity can count on the mass distribution of smart glasses and sophisticated smartphones to replace existing devices. Such wearable devices will prove to be an inadequate link between conventional communication tools and body-integrated systems. Mind-expanding virtual and augmented reality devices will be able to show how much of repetitive actions such as texting, printing documents or calling a taxi can be visualized, simplified and improved with new technologies.