Increase in temperature, global warming could be “catastrophic” for humanity Worse than many guesses or provokes a series of events that have not yet been considered, or both. “The world should start preparing for the possibility of a climate endgame.”

This is stated by an international research team led by the University of Cambridge, which proposes an agenda for dealing with worst-case scenarios. since the loss 10% of the world’s population up to eventual human extinction due to a climatic end.

Especially in an article published in the journal PNASCall on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to dedicate a future report to catastrophic climate change to accelerate research and inform the public.

“There are many reasons to believe in climate change. it could be a disaster. Even at modest warming levels,” says lead author Luke Kemp.

“It plays a role in all mass extinctions, contributing to the collapse of empires and shaping history. Even the modern world seems to have adapted to a particular climatic niche,” he says.

“Roads to disaster are not limited to the direct effects of high temperatures, for example. extreme weather events. “Cripple effects such as financial crises, conflicts and new disease outbreaks can trigger other disasters and hinder recovery from potential disasters such as nuclear war.”

high temperatures

Modeling by the team showed that areas of extreme heat (mean annual temperature above 29 degrees) They could reach two billion people by 2070; These regions are not only the most densely populated but also the most politically fragile.

“Average annual temperatures of 29 degrees are currently about 30 million people In the Sahara and the Gulf Coast”, Chi Xu of Nanjing University.

“Inside 2070These temperatures and their social and political consequences will directly affect the two nuclear powers. They will also affect the seven maximum containment labs that harbor the most dangerous pathogens. There is a high chance of disastrous side effects,” he says.

Last year’s IPCC report suggested that if atmospheric CO2 were to double from pre-industrial levels, temperatures were about 18% likely. Go above 4.5 degrees. This is something the planet is halfway through and could spell a climatic endgame for the world.

Under-explored scenarios

However, extreme temperature scenarios «not explored enough according to the probability.

The team responsible for the PNAS article propose a research agenda. what they say should be included. the “four horsemen” of the end of the climate: famine and malnutrition, extreme weather conditions, conflict and vector-borne diseases.

Rising temperatures pose a major threat to the global food supply. This could create conditions for new disease outbreaks as habitats change and shrink.

For Kristie Ebi, a University of Washington scientist, “we need an interdisciplinary effort to understand how climate change can trigger it. morbidity and mortality human mass.

And climate collapse could exacerbate other threats, from growing inequality and misinformation to democratic collapse. There may even be new forms of the devastating AI arsenal.

Lluís Brotons, a CSIC researcher at the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Practices (CREAF) in Spain, said the study “puts its finger on the pain point of realism and sense of caution.”

“We need to consider the consequences of such scenarios much more seriously than we have ever done. For example, through a special assessment by the IPCC,” adds the Spanish Science Media Center, “the scientist who did not participate in the research.