SpaceX and its CEO, Elon Musk, say the first attempt to launch the Starship spacecraft into orbit is imminent, but first the company must overcome both technical and regulatory hurdles. SpaceX announced on Twitter on January 12 that the final test series of the Starship vehicle and Super Heavy launch vehicle has continued at the Starbase test site in Boca Chica, Texas. On January 9, the company placed a Starship called Ship 24 on top of the Booster 7 super-heavy rocket booster on the launch pad.

According to the company, the tests include a “full complement” dress rehearsal of the combined vehicle. This will be followed by a static test of all 33 Raptor engines in Booster 7, the first time all these engines will fire simultaneously. From a technical standpoint, these tests will pave the way for an orbital launch attempt. SpaceX did not predict when this launch might take place, except “weeks in advance”.

But Musk was more outspoken. “We have a real shot at the end of February. A launch attempt in March looks very likely,” he tweeted on January 7, responding to a person who said the launch was scheduled for late January, citing a South Texas publication.

But SpaceX missed several earlier predictions from both Musk and others about the timeline for Starship’s first orbital launch. At an event in February 2022 with a fully assembled Starship in the background, Musk said the vehicle would be ready to fly in “a few months”.

At an advisory committee meeting in late October, a NASA official said he expects Starship to be ready for launch by early December after a full vehicle dress rehearsal and static fire testing of 33 motorized launch vehicles. NASA is closely monitoring Starship’s progress as it plans to use a version of the vehicle as a lunar lander for Artemis missions. SpaceX has received two NASA awards for developing these landers, totaling more than $4 billion.

It’s unclear why SpaceX missed Musk’s February forecast or NASA’s next forecast. The company suffered a notable test failure in July when the fuel under the superheavy booster ignited during testing, damaging the booster.

In addition to key technical milestones, SpaceX also needs a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration to launch Starship into orbit. The FAA completed an environmental review in June that allowed Starship to launch into orbit from Boca Chica but required the company to take more than 75 environmental mitigation measures.

Neither SpaceX nor the FAA provided an update on progress in implementing these reductions or the status of Starship’s launch license. But the FAA told SpaceNews on January 12 that not all activities need to be completed before a launch license can be granted.

“Timeframes vary for SpaceX to implement the more than 75 environmental measures required by the FAA for the Starship/Super Heavyweight program,” the agency said. “For example, some activities must be completed prior to launch, while others must be completed during launch or post-accident activities. The FAA will ensure that SpaceX complies with all necessary mitigation measures.”