Fifteen million people worldwide are at risk of flooding from glacial lakes, the majority of whom are in just four countries. An international team of scientists led by the University of Newcastle in the UK has conducted the first global assessment of the areas at greatest risk for glacial lake eruptions and identified priority areas for mitigation.

As the climate warms, the glaciers retreat and melt water collects in front of the glacier, forming a lake. These lakes can burst suddenly and create a glacial lake burst flood (GLOF), which can spread a great distance – in some cases over 120 km – from its original location. GLOFs can be very destructive and can damage property, infrastructure and farmland and cause significant loss of life.

Since 1990, the number of glacial lakes has increased rapidly due to climate change. At the same time, the number of people living in these basins has increased significantly.

The research team examined 1,089 glacial lake basins worldwide and the number of people living within 50 kilometers (~30 miles) of them, as well as the level of development in these areas and other societal indicators as markers of GLOF vulnerability. They then used this information to quantify and rank the damage potential of GLOFs on a global scale and to assess the ability of communities to respond effectively to floods.

The results highlighted that 15 million people live within a 50km radius of a glacial lake and that high altitude Asia (the Tibetan Plateau stretching from Kyrgyzstan to China) has the highest GLOF hazard, with 9.3 million people potentially at risk. . About 5 million people in India and Pakistan, or about a third of the world’s population, are exposed to the virus.

Lead researcher Caroline Taylor, a PhD student at Newcastle University, said: “This study highlights that it is not the areas with the most or fastest growing lakes that are most at risk. Instead, the potential danger from a GLOF event depends on the number of people, the glacial lake. It is determined by their proximity to the sea and, more importantly, their ability to cope with the flood.”

Study to be published today (February 7, 2023) in the journal Nature Communication, it also highlights Peru as one of the four countries that make up the majority of the population, along with India, Pakistan, and China. It is potentially endangered by the overflow of glacial lakes around the world. The research team points to a relative lack of research on the dangers of glacial lakes in the Andes and says that more research is urgently needed to better understand the potential local-level danger of GLOFs in the region due to the large number of people living in the area. proximity to glacial lakes and reduced ability to cope with the impact of GLOF.

Head of Physical Geography at Newcastle University and co-author Dr. and damage to downstream infrastructure as a result of this significant natural hazard.”