Sony will replace Lumentum (design)/Win Semi (manufacture) as the exclusive supplier of ToF VCSEL (Time of Flight, Vertical Void Surface Emitting Laser) for the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max. Lumentum/Win Semi will face long-term structural risks in the VCSEL market.

• An important design of Sony’s ToF VCSEL solution is the integration of the driver chip with the VCSEL, which can reduce power consumption (beneficial for battery life) or provide better ToF performance for the same power consumption (useful for camera and potential AR applications).
• Lumentum/Win Semi’s iPhone Face ID VCSEL market share will drop from 50% on the iPhone 14 series to 30-40% on the iPhone 15 series due to increased share of Sony and II-VI offerings.
• The loss of significant iPhone VCSEL orders means that the Lumentum/Win Semi will face inherent risks due to Sony’s technological advantage as Sony continues to receive Lumentum/Win Semi orders from other brand customers.

Another report by Ming-Chi Kuo was released today titled “Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Evaluates Apple’s Upcoming XR Headset and Announces Luxshare’s Engagement in 2nd Generation Headphones”.