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The world population could peak at 9 billion by mid-century, according to a new projection, well below the latest major population estimates, including those from the United Nations.
The world population could peak at 9 billion by mid-century, according to a new projection, well below the latest major population estimates, including those from the United Nations.
The study goes further and argues that if the world takes a “giant leap” in investment in economic developmenteducation and health, the world population could reach a maximum of 8.5 billion in 2050.
New Forecasts Included in Initiative Study earth4all for the Global Challenges Foundation.
doing so projectionsin this century, the team used a new system dynamics model with two scenarios.
In the first Too Little Too Late, the world continues to develop economically as it has for the past 50 years, with many of the poorest countries escaping extreme poverty.
The researchers calculated that in this scenario world population it could peak at 8.6 billion in 2050 and then drop to 7 billion in 2100.
In the second scenario, dubbed the Giant Leap, researchers estimate that the population will peak at 8.5 billion around 2040 and decline to around 6 billion by the end of the century.
But this can only be achieved “through an unprecedented investment” in fight against poverty – especially in education and health – along with an extraordinary policy shift on food and energy security, inequality and gender equality.
In this scenario, extreme poverty disappears within a generation (by 2060), with a marked impact on world demographic trends.
The authors believe that it differs from other large demographic projections in that they tend to downplay rapid economic development.
“We know that the rapid economic development of low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates. Fertility rates are declining as girls gain access to education and women become more economically active and have access to better health care,” says Per Espen Stoknes, Project Manager. earth4all and director of the Center for Sustainability at the Norwegian Business School.
“Few outstanding models simultaneously imitate population growtheconomic development and their relationship,” adds Beniamino Callegari, member of the Earth4All modeling team.
The analysis uses ten regions of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa, China and the United States.
Currently, population growth is higher in some countries in Africa such as Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, as well as in Asia such as Afghanistan.
“If we assume that these countries are pursuing sound economic development policies, we can expect population peaks to occur sooner rather than later,” says Callegari.
The team also looked at the relationship between population and exceeding planetary boundaries related to Earth’s carrying capacity.
Contrary to popular myths, the team found that Population This is not the main driver of overcoming planetary boundaries, like the climate crisis, but what destabilizes the planet is the sky-high levels of influence of the 10% of the world’s richest people.
“The main problem of humanity is luxury carbon consumption and the biosphere, not the population. Places where population is growing the fastest have an extremely small ecological footprint per person compared to places where population peaked many decades ago,” said Jørgen Randers of earth4all.
According to the demographic projections of the group, the entire population could achieve living conditions above the minimum level United Nations without significant changes in current development trends, as long as resources were distributed equally.
The study also concludes that at current population levels, everyone can escape extreme poverty and exceed the minimum threshold for living. worthy life with access to food, housing, energy and other resources, although this requires a (much more) fair distribution of resources.
“A good life for all is possible only with overuse of resources wealthy elite,” concludes Randers.
EFE
Source: Aristegui Noticias
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