Why do Russian space satellites fail during the war with Ukraine?

During the Cold War, Russia was the country that launched satellites and then humans into space. With more than 160 Russian satellites in orbit today, every Ukrainian city, tank and howitzer should be within sight of orbital cameras.

But this does not happen on the battlefield. A Western expert says that while the Ukrainian military benefits greatly from commercial communications and photographic satellites, Russia has received little reward from its massive investment in military spaceships.

“The Ukrainian military can use commercial systems to acquire high-detail images of any terrain at least twice a day in favorable weather conditions, while the Russian military can acquire images of the same terrain approximately every two weeks” – Pavlo Luzin, Sr. Research A fellow at the Jamestown Foundation wrote in a recent article: puzzle. In addition, “existing Russian satellites provide significantly lower image quality compared to American and European commercial satellites.”

GPS satellites allowed Ukrainian, American-made HIMARS guided missiles to precisely target Russian supply depots and headquarters. Using multiple satellites in low Earth orbit to communicate via backpack-sized ground stations, SpaceX’s Starlink has become indispensable for Ukrainian military communications.

However, despite the large number of hypersonic and other guided missiles and smart bombs, Russia was unable to carry out accurate strikes. “Due to the lack of reconnaissance capability, Russia cannot use its high-precision weapons as planned,” Luzin said. said.Popular mechanic “. Therefore, Russia launched a missile terror campaign against the cities and civilian population of Ukraine.”

The problem isn’t the lack of orbital equipment. According to Luzin, Russia has more than 160 satellites in orbit, more than 100 of which are military systems. These include 25 GLONASS GPS satellites, 47 communications satellites, seven Liana ocean electronic reconnaissance satellites, two Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, as well as various missile detection systems, topographical mapping and experimental spacecraft.

What Russia is missing is the right combination of satellites and ground systems, and procedures for receiving and distributing data to those who need it. For example, the Liana spacecraft is designed to track ships. But Russia has always been a land power, not a naval power, and being able to track US aircraft carriers in the Pacific doesn’t help win a land war in Ukraine.

Realizing that it was left behind in the new space race, Russia decided not to make spy satellites in the early 2000s. “The Kremlin decided to start with the GLONASS satellite navigation system and communication satellites based on Western space electronic components,” said Luzin. “Reconnaissance satellites were a much more difficult task for the Russian space industry, and it only took off in the early 2010s.”

But the imposition of Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 hindered investment in intelligence systems. As a result, Russia has only two optical reconnaissance (photo) satellites in orbit. Two new Resurs satellites are delayed until at least 2024, while three commercial Russian satellites that could be used for military imaging may no longer be operational.

While the exact number of US spy satellites has been classified, the National Intelligence Agency has planned at least seven launches in 2022. The agency is currently contracting commercial companies for hyperspectral satellite imagery that can detect objects in multiple light bands.

The problem is not just with satellites. The troops lack satellite communication terminals, which only worsens the rigid and divided command system of the Russian army. Although GLONASS GPS satellites are working, users do not have terminals and electronic maps for using satellite navigation.

In 2020, Luzin estimates that Russia spends $1.6 billion annually on its military space program. However, funding for future Russian satellites remains unclear. The war in Ukraine diverts resources to tanks and missiles. Meanwhile, Western sanctions will deprive the Russian spacecraft of complex components.

It is not worth turning to commercial satellites, as Ukraine has successfully done. “The Russian model of political economy makes private space efforts completely impossible,” said Luzin. “Private business and technology ventures seen as political threats.”

The West may also take steps to prevent the resumption of Russia’s military space program. “It is necessary to prevent Russia from accessing not only space electronics, but also advanced industrial equipment,” said Luzin. said. “Also for commercial satellite services using rogue firms in Asia and Europe.”

It is unrealistic to assume that Russian satellites will disappear from the sky, as Russian satellites were one of the first two astronauts. But the heyday of Sputnik and Soyuz seems to be over.

“I don’t think Russia can develop its military space potential,” Luzin said. said. Source