We already knew that 2023 would be a difficult year for the PC market. Simply because you can’t always go up and the two years of the COVID pandemic have been fantastic in terms of computer sales as workers and students have had to stay home and buy new computing infrastructure.

Major analyst firms have just released data for the first quarter of 2023 confirming negative forecasts. IDC says so PC sales down 29% and Canalys paints an even worse picture, with a year-on-year decline of 33%.

A drop of around a third is a lot for a market segment, but as we said, the special circumstances of the industry have to be taken into account. Many consumers bought new equipment in 2020 and 2021 or upgraded existing ones with new components to meet the increased needs for work at home, online study and also lockdown entertainment as we adapt to the global pandemic.

It should be noted that laptops tend to have a long lifespan. between three and five years. Desktop computers last much longer, from three to eight years, although in this segment you have to count on the sale of upgradeable components such as SSDs or RAM. Assuming there is a cap on PC sales, simple it is not possible for the industry to sustain sustained growth and this year it’s time to go down.

now it is falling; short-term hikes

Of course, in a few quarters the situation will turn around and green shoots will return. At least that’s what analysts expect with a new growth forecast for late 2023/early 2024.

“If the overall economy remains buoyant until then, we expect significant market growth as consumers look to upgrade, schools look to replace aging Chromebooks, and businesses switch to Windows 11. If the recession in key markets drags on into next year, the recovery could be hard work.”explain from IDC.

Canalys is still more optimistic for the near future: “The PC market has strong fundamentals to support long-term growth with higher shipment volumes than in the pre-pandemic era. A much larger post-Covid-19 installed base, Windows 11 migration and upgrades, and new demand for digital education will be key factors as the global economy enters the recovery period in 2024 and beyond.”.

PC market by manufacturers

According to IDC, 56.9 million PCs were sold in the first quarter of 2023, a 29% year-over-year decline. All manufacturers have fallen. In the top-5, highlights the decline of Appleno less than 40.5% down, although it must be said that it was the manufacturer that held the best in 2022.

As they say: strong falls yes, but derived from a fairly predictable seasonal situation and that this will turn around in the short term once the winds of recession have passed and the world economy continues to grow. And that the increase in costs in electronics manufacturing/distribution, partly motivated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is under control and prices for the end customer have stopped rising. Manufacturers and retailers can be expected to launch sales campaigns today to clear relatively high inventories.