Talking about technology is talking about the future, and if there’s an industry where we like to play fortune teller, it’s ours. Any reader of MC will surely remember some of his technological prophecies and their outcome, which are fortunately always forgotten in the private sphere.

But the big players in the sector are also interested in what product will fail, what technology will win, or what consumers will need even before they know it. There are some of the worst technological prophecies of all times:

“A car is a fashion, a novelty. Horses are here to stay.”

President of the Michigan Savings Bank (1903)

Horace Rackham was working at the law firm that drafted the incorporation documents for Henry Ford’s automobile company in 1903 and was offered the opportunity to be an investor. Before making up his mind, he decided to visit a banker friend who made it abundantly clear that cars were little more than a passing invention for the rich.

“There is no reason why one would want a computer at home”

Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, microcomputer manufacturer (1974)

This sentence was revealed by David H. Ahl, a former employee of Olsen who was very upset after he refused to support his project to develop and commercialize personal computer products.

“The idea of ​​having a wireless personal communicator is just a dream driven by greed.”

Andry Grove, CEO of Intel at the Mobile Conference (1992)

At a time when the mobile industry was little more than a dream, Intel distanced itself completely from anything related first to phones and later to PDAs or smartphones. As we know, it took him years to get back on the bandwagon.

“I would shut down Apple and return the money to shareholders”

Michael Dell (1997)

Not quite a prediction, but the president’s answer to the question of what he would do with Apple if Steve Jobs were to take over again.

“In 2005, it will be clear that the impact of the Internet on the economy was no greater than the impact of the fax machine.”

Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics (1998).

Paul Krugman wrote this dissertation as part of an article for Red Herring titled “Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong.”

Over time, Krugman admitted his mistake several times and secured it “I was trying to be provocative and I was wrong. It happens to all of us many times”

“The subscription model for buying music is broken.”

Steve Jobs (2003)

In an interview with Rolling Stone, Steve Jobs made clear his lack of confidence in the model based on “pay and consume what you want”. For Apple’s CEO, it was a matter of how users consumed audio: “you buy 45s, LPs, cassettes and CDs. They’re going to want to buy downloads.”

“The spam problem will be solved in the next two years”

Bill Gates (2004)

At the Davos Forum, the CEO of Microsoft dared to assure that spam is very close to the end.

“There just aren’t that many videos I want to see.”

Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube (2005)

Incredible as it may seem to us today, the founders of YouTube had long been very concerned about the long-term viability of their company. Fortunately, a money-making machine called Google came to their rescue, enduring a lack of revenue from the internet’s largest video platform for many years.

“Everyone always asks me when Apple is going to come out with a mobile phone. My answer is: ‘Probably never'”.

David Pogue, The New York Times. (2006)

One of the top technology journalists was not very accurate with this prediction. Just one year later, Apple launched the first iPhone.

“There is no chance that the iPhone will gain significant market share. No chance.”.

Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft (2007)

This is probably one of the most remembered predictions, with good reason: the iPhone is the best-selling consumer device in history and was key to Apple surpassing Microsoft in market capitalization, among other things.

Over time, Ballmer explained that his mistake was not thinking that Apple’s innovations were not only technological, but also in the way the phones were sold. Jobs was able to negotiate with carriers so that the payment for the iPhone was part of the monthly bill, and according to the former Microsoft executive, this was key to his success.

“The computer industry is the only one that is more fashionable than women’s fashion. Maybe I’m stupid, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. what is the cloud It’s nonsense. It’s crazy.”

Larry Ellison in Oracle World (2008)

There’s no denying that Ellison is a straight guy, and in the year of his appointment, cloud was the complete opposite of Oracle’s business. However, after years of resistance, the cloud has recently become a native part of its offering.

Aside from the anecdote or how fun it can be to remember these typos, there’s an interesting consideration: when you’re in charge of a successful business It is difficult that your prediction is that everything will change soon. The usual thing is to think that you are going in the right direction (Professional computing vs. PCs, PC vs. Mobile, Cloud vs. Datacenters…) and that is exactly what you are expected to say.

We close this collection here, but we recommend that you complete it share more tech predictions you remember in the comments. Maybe in a few years we’ll revise this article to include predictions about blockchain, AI, or the metaverse… or the exact opposite.