Climate change will force wildlife to relocate their habitats, possibly to areas with high human density, significantly increasing the risk that new viruses will spread from wild animals to humans, potentially leading to the next pandemic.

Your published research Nature Using the models, it is estimated that there may be about 15,000 new viral transmission events between species by 2070, due to a realignment of the distribution of mammals driven by climate change in a two-degree Celsius warming scenario.

This increased opportunity for viral change may increase the risk of infectious diseases spreading to humans, particularly in densely populated areas of tropical Africa and Southeast Asia, research warns about bats in particular.

The team, led by Colin Carlson of Georgetown University in the United States, studied how the geographic ranges of 3,139 mammal species could change in response to different climate scenarios by 2070.

The authors note that as warming is already underway, climate-induced changes in species distribution points and virus evolution may already be occurring, and that keeping temperature increases below two degrees Celsius this century may not reduce the development of these events.

“It’s possible even now and mostly unnoticed,” and “even in the best-case scenario of climate change,” it cannot be avoided,” George Albery said at a virtual press conference. One of the study’s authors from Georgetown University.

The movement of animals will cause many to come together and form entirely new communities; this “will be a new and potentially devastating mechanism for the emergence of new diseases that may threaten the health of animal populations in the future and have potential consequences for our health.” “said.

Therefore, he stressed the need to establish surveillance systems for the movement of wild animals and their diseases, and to create infrastructures that protect their and people’s health.

The expert thinks the coming decades will be warmer, not only because of climate change, but also because of more diseases.

For his part, Carlson stressed that these changes were not being followed, which “makes the risk of an epidemic a problem for everyone.”

At least 10,000 types of viruses are capable of infecting humans, but the vast majority are currently circulating quietly in wild mammals.

As a whole, the study suggests that climate change will be the main factor at the source of the risk of disease emergence, beyond problems such as deforestation, wildlife trade and industrial agriculture.

It is estimated that new virus exchange events are predominantly driven by bats, which are likely to harbor viruses that are likely to infect humans.

Carlson explained the situation with an analogy to indicate that this is similar to the “risks we see in the wildlife trade.”

In a statement from his university, the team leader pointed out that the markets are of interest to us, as combining unhealthy animals in unnatural combinations creates opportunities for this process.

But markets are no longer “private” places; In a changing climate, this kind of process will be real in nature almost everywhere.”

The team recommends combining wildlife disease surveillance with real-time environmental change studies.

“When a Brazilian tailless bat comes to Appalachia, we need to know what virus is accompanying it,” Carlson said. spreads.” and more pandemics,” said the expert.