The researchers identified regions such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America as the most vulnerable to record heatwaves, highlighting risks and the need for action plans to mitigate damage. New research has identified poorly prepared regions around the world that are most at risk from the devastating effects of high temperatures.

The study, led by the University of Bristol, was published today (April 25) in the journalism. Nature Communicationshows unprecedented extreme heat coupled with socioeconomic vulnerability Some regions, such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Central America, are most at risk.

Countries that have not yet experienced the most severe heatwaves are often particularly vulnerable, as adaptation measures are often implemented only after the event. The high probability of record temperatures, population growth and limited health care and energy resources increase risks.

Beijing and Central Europe are also on the hotspots list because millions of people will be adversely affected if a record heatwave occurs in these densely populated areas. In light of the findings, the researchers encourage policy makers in hotspot regions to consider appropriate action plans to reduce the risk of death and related harm from extreme climate conditions.

Map showing where record heatwaves are most likely. Current record turnaround times for high-risk areas are less than 100 years. Low-risk areas have already experienced heatwaves that seemed unimaginable before they happened. Credit: University of Bristol

Lead author, climatologist Dr Vikki Thompson of the Bristol Cabot Environment Institute said: “As heatwaves become more frequent, we need to be better prepared. We are currently identifying regions that could be lucky – some of these regions are rapidly growing in population, some are developing countries, “Some of them are already very hot. We need to ask if the plans to heat these areas are adequate.”

Using extreme value statistics (a method of predicting recurrence periods of rare events) and large datasets from climate models and observations, the researchers identified regions around the world where temperature records are most likely to be broken and where communities are most at risk. The result is excessive heat.

The researchers also warned that statistically unreasonable extremes could happen anywhere, with current records being broken to limits that seemed impossible until they happened. These unexpected events were found to occur in about one-third (31%) of regions where observations were considered reliable enough between 1959 and 2021, such as the 2021 heat wave in western North America.

Co-author Dan Mitchell, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the Bristol Cabot Environmental Institute, said: “Preparation saves lives. We’ve seen some of the most unexpected heat waves around the world lead to tens of thousands of heat deaths. In this study, we show that such recording events can occur anywhere. Governments around the world must be ready.”

Human-induced climate change causes heatwaves to increase in frequency, intensity and duration, potentially leading to thousands of new deaths worldwide.

Improving our understanding of where societies may be unprepared for extreme climate changes can help prioritize mitigation in the most vulnerable areas. Recognizing the dangerous consequences of climate change, the University of Bristol became the first university in the UK to declare a climate emergency in 2019, as evidenced by the work of climate experts.