Up to 45% of casualties were averted in the first few months of the war in Ukraine, thanks to increased public reaction and the Ukrainian government’s communications strategy, according to a new study led by researchers from the University of Michigan, the University of Chicago and Ipsos. Combining innovative methodology with the authors’ deep geopolitical experience, this paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of air raid warnings during conflict. It was published in the April 25 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Co-authors David Van Dijke of UM, Austin Wright of the University of Chicago, and Mark Polyak of Ipsos provided substantial evidence that policymakers must maintain and adapt their messages during protracted conflicts to ensure the safety of civilians. The study offers valuable lessons not only for the Ukrainian government, but also for 39 other countries that have developed similar early warning systems.

“Which combination of messaging and technology will work in a conflict environment, and how to measure the effectiveness of these strategies, is key to preventing civilian casualties, especially in the face of rising geopolitical tensions in the post-Soviet space,” Polyak said. aforementioned. Head of Analytics, Ipsos, North America.

Like many other countries in the world, Ukraine has developed a hybrid airspace early warning system that combines a smartphone app with traditional air sirens to encourage citizens to take cover during military operations. However, the behavior of large-scale populations in response to these stimuli has not yet been well studied.

Among the questions that worry researchers are: How do citizens react immediately after receiving a warning? Do response times change as the conflict continues? How should government communications change to continue delivering effective messages as “wakefulness fatigue” begins?

The authors examined responses to more than 3,000 civilian alerts via high-frequency geolocation requests connected to 17 million anonymous mobile devices, which account for 60% of Ukraine’s connected population.

The analysis found that public safety measures play a critical role in preventing harm to civilians, but also a decline in response rates over time, which may be explained by the gradual normalization of risk in wartime conditions. The researchers concluded that 8 to 15% of victims could have been avoided thanks to increased public awareness.

This “people fatigue” is a serious public safety issue.

“As the war continues and we see a shift towards greater use of drone strikes, with the potentially large casualties associated with this shift, the decline in public response is cause for concern,” said Wright, an associate professor of public policy at the University. Chicago.

To minimize damage without disrupting economic and social activity, the authors say, policymakers must develop targeted messages that raise public awareness of potential risks. Even a small increase in response speed and urgency can play a huge role in reducing human casualties.

“One thing that struck me was how vigilant fatigue persisted across dimensions, even when we took into account the different ways people adapt to wartime situations,” said Van Dijke, a PhD candidate in economics at the University of Massachusetts.

“At the same time, fatigue does not seem to be inevitable. On days when the Ukrainian government sent special war announcements, people responded much more strongly to the warnings, highlighting the important role the Ukrainian government played in maintaining public morale and hope during this tragic invasion.” Source