We are close to the next solar maximum, which is expected to begin in 2025. Matthew Owens, professor of space physics at the University of Reading, explains this and more. The solar maximum is the peak of solar activity, where the Sun’s magnetic field reaches its strongest, most irregular, and dynamic point.

This increased solar activity can cause extreme space weather events, including solar flares and eruptions. It can also disrupt radio communications and power grids and have serious health consequences for astronauts. The danger primarily concerns large-scale infrastructure. At an individual level, people on Earth are unlikely to see the effects of the solar maximum directly.

This solar maximum will likely be stronger than the previous one.

Solar cycles typically last 11 years, with the solar maximum occurring approximately in the middle of each cycle. The last solar maximum occurred between 2012 and 2014 and was particularly weak, one of the smallest in nearly 100 years. So space weather was generally milder than normal.

However, this upcoming solar maximum seems to be returning to average values. This means we may see a greater impact on space weather and the corresponding possible outcomes.

What does the solar maximum mean for Earth?

Solar activity is primarily caused by turbulent plasma movements within the Sun that create and change the Sun’s magnetic field. The Sun’s magnetic field is reported to reach its highest strength during solar maximum, causing an increase in events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

Solar flares consist of high-energy photons, such as X-rays, that can increase ionization in Earth’s upper atmosphere and disrupt radio communications.

CMEs, on the other hand, are explosions of the sun’s magnetic field and material that fuels geomagnetic storms. These disturbances in the earth’s magnetic field can damage the electrical distribution grid.

During the solar maximum, we will also see more explosions of very high-energy particles moving towards Earth. The probability of these flares occurring during a solar maximum is about four times that of a solar minimum, and because the particles in these flares are radiation, they pose a serious health hazard to astronauts, passengers, and high-latitude and high-altitude crew. aeroplane. They can also damage space equipment and cause the loss of a satellite.

You probably won’t notice many of these effects

Most solar maximum effects are temporary, and this remains one of the biggest challenges in studying space weather. For example, it is often difficult to explicitly attribute a problem in the electrical grid to space weather – even if the problem was caused by solar activity.

The only special effect we can predict with certainty is that you’re more likely to see aurora, or northern and southern lights, at different latitudes. During a solar maximum, more solar particles interacting with molecules in Earth’s atmosphere cause brighter images of the aurora borealis, which can extend further north or south than normal.

Scientists have also detected signals of the solar cycle, such as changes in temperature and ozone levels in Earth’s stratosphere. While scientists take these changes from the Sun into account when looking at long-term climate fluctuations, these effects on climate are not as significant or severe as factors such as volcanoes, carbon dioxide emissions, and other human activities.

Our dependence on technology increases risks

Space weather is an ever-increasing risk, as our shared reliance on technology and space grows each year. The threat it poses to the electricity grid is of greatest concern, particularly due to the cascading hazards associated with prolonged power outages.

However, it all comes down to probability. A stronger solar cycle means a higher probability of extreme space weather events. It does not guarantee extreme space weather.

In fact, extreme space weather can occur even during small solar cycles. During the small solar maximum of Cycle 24, a spacecraft far from Earth encountered one of the most energetic CMEs ever seen. A CME of this size targeting Earth could cause major disruptions to the power distribution network or serious damage to satellite equipment.