Global temperatures are rising at an alarming rate, which means heatwaves are occurring more frequently. Researchers from across the UK have identified the countries most at risk from the heatwave to better prepare for what lies ahead. These are not the only countries where heatwaves are expected to be likely. The new study also takes into account factors such as socio-economic characteristics, population growth, the stability of energy networks and the availability of health services.

The study concludes that regions such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America are most at risk from the damaging effects of heatwaves. Beijing and Central Europe are also vulnerable because their large populations put relatively large numbers of people at risk.

The team behind the study wants more done to prepare for potentially devastating heat waves. Part of the problem is that we’re not sure what lies ahead – what lies ahead will likely be worse than anything we’ve seen so far.

“Often, regions simply prepare for extreme events as they’ve experienced before, and by planning triggered by past disasters,” the researchers wrote in their published paper.

“Policymakers and governments must be prepared for events that exceed current records, including trends driven by anthropogenic climate change that increase the likelihood of extreme events.”

The researchers used the latest climate models and global population data to make their predictions, as well as a method to determine the probability of extreme climate events occurring again, known as extreme value statistics.

Statistically implausible heat waves — too extreme to be predicted by models — have occurred in 31 percent of the 136 regions covered in the study over the past 60 years, the researchers said. This is another reason why we overprepare for events that seem almost unbelievable at the moment.

“As heatwaves become more frequent, we need to be better prepared,” says climate scientist Vicky Thompson of the University of Bristol in England.

“We are currently identifying regions that could be lucky – some of these regions are rapidly growing in population, some are developing countries, some are already very hot. We need to ask if heat action plans are adequate for these areas.”

Prolonged high temperatures not only kill people directly, they make daily life and work much more difficult, they can be devastating to agricultural and agricultural development and have side effects such as increased risk of forest fires. There is good news: Preparation reduces deaths. These preparations may include cooling of spaces in urban conditions, changing or reducing working hours.

According to the researchers, developing countries have the least comprehensive plans for heat supply. Hopefully, as efforts to rein in global warming continue, steps can be taken to limit the damage from extreme weather events currently looming.

“Preparation saves lives,” says Dan Mitchell, an atmospheric researcher at the University of Bristol. “We’ve seen some of the most unexpected heatwaves in the world kill tens of thousands of people.”

“In this study, we show that such record-breaking events can happen anywhere. Governments around the world must be ready.” Study published Nature Communication.