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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned today that there is a growing possibility that an El Niño event, traditionally associated with rising temperatures, will be recorded in the
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned today that there is a growing possibility that an El Niño event, traditionally associated with rising temperatures, will be recorded in the coming months and lead to an increase in heat for at least two years after the planet has already been hit. . between 2015 and 2022 the eight warmest years on record.
“We expect sharp rise in global temperaturel in the next two years,” Wilfranc Mufuma, Director of the WMO Forecasting Service, told a press conference, but stressed that we must wait for new studies to quantify this larger warming.
According to a report presented today by an expert at a press conference from Geneva,El Niño phenomenonwhich in some regions of the planet is usually accompanied by floods, and in others by droughts, has a 60% probability of triggering before July, and by September the probability increases to 80%.
The phenomenon of El Niño and its inverse version of La Niña (in principle associated with a cooling of the climate) are highs and lows thermal fluctuations in South Pacific waters, currently in a “neutral” situation after three years of La Niña dominance (an unusually long period).
Surface water measurements have already shown that Pacific temperature increases again, leading experts to anticipate an El Niño that could be linked to increased rainfall in southern Ecuador, northwestern Peru, southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina, southeastern Paraguay, Uruguay, central Chile, and northern Mexico , according to the graphs from WMO.
However, “in large areas of the Amazon, El Niño has otherwise been associated with droughts,” Mufuma said, while the WMO also tends to link the phenomenon to droughts.lack of precipitation in Indonesia, Australia, southern Africa and the Indian subcontinent.
The length and intensity of this El Niño period cannot yet be predicted, although it typically lasts between nine months and one year.
The previous year brought records
The previous El Niño cycle (2014-2015) contributed to the fact that a year later, in 2016, the planet’s temperature was the highest since records were recorded, so this time too it could cause its worst effects with some delay. WMO predicts they will arrive in 2024.
In the northern hemisphere, rising water temperatures are contributing to hurricane development in the Pacific Ocean, but hinders their formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
In recent weeks, some of the countries potentially affected by El Niño have already begun issuing rain warnings in some regions.
EFE
Source: Aristegui Noticias
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