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Let’s dig deep: what is really happening in the Russian car market today?

  • November 15, 2023
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Unfortunately, despite the fact that sales of new cars in Russia show relatively good growth dynamics, in general there is no reason for optimism. After all, our country’s

Unfortunately, despite the fact that sales of new cars in Russia show relatively good growth dynamics, in general there is no reason for optimism. After all, our country’s vehicle fleet is aging with very confident steps, and in a few decades we can really become a second Cuba, where the average age of “swallows” is almost 60 years. So what is actually happening in our car market and is it worth believing the plans and reports of car manufacturers and distributors full of caramel sweetness?

Regularly attending various press conferences and studying the publications of car manufacturers, every automotive journalist sooner or later experiences a professional personality distortion, expressed in the sincere belief that the sales of new “cars” break all records, that the new brands entering the market come, We have long since seriously established that the prices for new vehicles are quite reasonable.

And like an ice-cold, immediately sobering shower: data from the analytical agency Autostat, which force you to look at reality from a completely different angle. That’s why the conversation about motor oils started during the Lukoil “round table” with summarized statistics for 9 months of this year, which clearly characterize our automotive reality.

Old age is not a joy

For example, in just one year, our country’s car fleet has become seven months outdated: if in January 2022 the average age of cars was 14 years, then twelve months later it was 14.7 years. Based on interim data, the fleet will age even further by 2024, despite encouraging reports of growth in sales of new ‘iron horses’.

Think about it: half (48%) of all vehicles registered with the traffic police are over 15 years old! Another quarter (23%) are ‘retirees’ between 10 and 14 years old. But the share of new cars, the age of which is not older than 5 years, is only 15%. And the trends eloquently indicate that not only will Russia’s vehicle fleet continue to age, but it has every chance of shrinking by around 8% over the next five years. The analyzes and prices are very impressive.

Let’s get nostalgic and remember the average prices for new budget sedans in 2021. A Kia Rio a few years ago cost the buyer about 924,900 rubles, and now the average invoice at car dealers for a “Korean” imported through parallel imports or sold from the garbage bins – for the faint of heart: please move away from the screen – is 1,9795,000 ‘wooden’. Feel, as they say, a 94.1% difference!

But the popular Solaris from Hyundai has increased in price even more – instead of 890,000 rubles, which at the checkout adds that you could drive away with a brand new car in 2021, dealers are now asking 1,950,000 rubles, that is, in 2 years the price increase was +119.1%. I just want to raise my glass and say something along the lines of “May our salaries grow at the same rate!” But the Volkswagen Polo was the least affected by the inflation storm, as its price increased by a ‘pathetic’ 81.5% – instead of 999,900 rubles in 2021, it now costs 1,815,000.

We do not stand behind the price…

It is clear that importing your favorite foreign cars through Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan leaves an unpleasant impression on the final cost of the cars, but why on earth are prices increasing obscenely for the ‘Chinese’ too? Let us not be unfounded and give some figures from the Autostat agency.

Haval Jolion produced near Tula in 2021 cost patients an average of 1,279,000 rubles, and now – 1,949,000 (+52.4%). And even then there is apparently an error in the statistics, because for less than 2.5 million you cannot get a “Russian Chinese” from the showroom. No fewer than the parts for this car also come via parallel import…

Geely Coolray also cannot be called a budget SUV, because if in 2021 the average purchase price was 1,377,000 rubles, then in 2023 this “Chinese car” increased in value by 67.4%, which in ruble terms is 2,305,000. Chery Tiggo 7 PRO has never been a cheap car, and that is why the price metamorphoses are the most noticeable: instead of the 1,669,900 rubles they asked for two years ago, ‘now’ they want 2,749,900 for the ‘prosh seven’ .

Average temperature in the hospital

Do you want to know the weighted average prices in Russia for cars by brand origin? Thus, the average invoice for the purchase of a domestic product is 1,150,000 rubles. And guess what, the analysts were modest, because I saw with my own eyes the price tag for the LADA Largus at 2.3 million rubles, and the cheapest Granta, when bought for real money, costs a million rubles. The average price for “Chinese” (including those produced in the Russian Federation) is 3,340,000 “re”.

If you want to buy a “Korean”, then it is advisable to have more than 6 million in your pocket. But buying a premium “European” is the most expensive – the average transaction price when buying a new Audi, BMW or Mercedes is 11 million rubles. Well, how will the Russian fleet become younger with such and such prices?

Slide of the agency “Avtostat”.
Slide of the agency “Avtostat”.
Slide of the agency “Avtostat”.

Regularly attending various press conferences and studying the publications of car manufacturers, every automotive journalist sooner or later experiences a professional personality distortion, expressed in the sincere belief that the sales of new “cars” break all records, that the new brands entering the market come, We have long since seriously established that the prices for new vehicles are quite reasonable.

And like an ice-cold, immediately sobering shower: data from the analytical agency Autostat, which force you to look at reality from a completely different angle. That’s why the conversation about motor oils started during the Lukoil “round table” with summarized statistics for 9 months of this year, which clearly characterize our automotive reality.

Old age is not a joy

For example, in just one year, our country’s car fleet has become seven months outdated: if in January 2022 the average age of cars was 14 years, then twelve months later it was 14.7 years. Based on interim data, the fleet will age even further by 2024, despite encouraging reports of growth in sales of new ‘iron horses’.

Think about it: half (48%) of all vehicles registered with the traffic police are over 15 years old! Another quarter (23%) are ‘retirees’ between 10 and 14 years old. But the share of new cars, the age of which is not older than 5 years, is only 15%. And the trends eloquently indicate that not only will Russia’s vehicle fleet continue to age, but it has every chance of shrinking by around 8% over the next five years. The analyzes and prices are very impressive.

Let’s get nostalgic and remember the average prices for new budget sedans in 2021. A Kia Rio a few years ago cost the buyer about 924,900 rubles, and now the average invoice at car dealers for a “Korean” imported through parallel imports or sold from the garbage bins – for the faint of heart: please move away from the screen – is 1,9795,000 ‘wooden’. Feel, as they say, a 94.1% difference!

But the popular Solaris from Hyundai has increased in price even more – instead of 890,000 rubles, which at the checkout adds that you could drive away with a brand new car in 2021, dealers are now asking 1,950,000 rubles, that is, in 2 years the price increase was +119.1%. I just want to raise my glass and say something along the lines of “May our salaries grow at the same rate!” But the Volkswagen Polo was the least affected by the inflation storm, as its price rose by a ‘pathetic’ 81.5% – instead of 999,900 rubles in 2021, it now costs 1,815,000.

We do not stand behind the price…

It is clear that importing your favorite foreign cars through Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan leaves an unpleasant impression on the final cost of the cars, but why on earth are prices increasing obscenely for the ‘Chinese’ too? Let us not be unfounded and give some figures from the Autostat agency.

Haval Jolion produced near Tula in 2021 cost patients an average of 1,279,000 rubles, and now – 1,949,000 (+52.4%). And even then there is apparently an error in the statistics, because for less than 2.5 million you cannot get a “Russian Chinese” from the showroom. No fewer than the parts for this car also come via parallel import…

Geely Coolray also cannot be called a budget SUV, because if in 2021 the average purchase price was 1,377,000 rubles, then in 2023 this “Chinese car” increased in value by 67.4%, which in ruble terms is 2,305,000. Chery Tiggo 7 PRO has never been a cheap car, and that is why the price metamorphoses are the most noticeable: instead of the 1,669,900 rubles they asked for two years ago, they want ‘now’ 2,749,900 for the ‘prosh seven’ .

Average temperature in the hospital

Do you want to know the weighted average prices in Russia for cars by brand origin? So, the average invoice for the purchase of a domestic product is 1,150,000 rubles. And guess what, the analysts were modest, because I saw with my own eyes the price tag for the LADA Largus at 2.3 million rubles, and the cheapest Granta, when bought for real money, costs a million rubles. The average price for “Chinese” (including those produced in the Russian Federation) is 3,340,000 “re”.

If you want to buy a “Korean”, then it is advisable to have more than 6 million in your pocket. But buying a premium “European” is the most expensive – the average transaction price when buying a new Audi, BMW or Mercedes is 11 million rubles. Well, how will the Russian fleet become younger with such and such prices?

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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