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Forecasts for passenger car sales for the coming year, prepared by domestic analysts, are not at all a decree for our Chinese brothers. The Chinese have a special
In fact, two mutually exclusive concepts for the development of the Russian car market were published independently and almost simultaneously.
They got along. Wave and stone
Poetry and prose, ice and fire.
The Autostat agency, which has a solid database on the registration of new cars in Russia and some analytical skills, has made a forecast for the next year based on the results of 11 months of 2023. The pessimistic scenario assumed sales of 900 thousand cars, the basic model – 1300 thousand and the optimistic – 1480 thousand.
Taking into account the fact that Russian car enthusiasts purchased 939.3 thousand of these vehicles in the January-November period of this year, the results of autostat fortune telling on coffee grounds look quite acceptable. However, Chinese automakers clearly disagree with the agency’s conclusions.
As a survey of distributors, dealers and manufacturers showed, companies from the Middle Kingdom seriously plan to sell as many as 1.2 million cars to our compatriots next year. It is these plans that Vedomosti reports, citing the presentation of the car marketer community and Oleg Mosev, ex-president of the Russian Automobile Dealers Association (ROAD).
The Chery brand is aiming for a volume of 200,000 passenger cars (the entire holding company is of course aiming for an even larger number), Changan threatens to get 180,000 buyers, Haval threatens to sell 150,000 cars and Geely threatens to win the hearts of 110,000 Russian cars. drivers. That is, our friends from China plan to sell such a volume that there will be no room at all for domestic car manufacturers, if we take into account the average forecast of Autostat. Just some collective captains Smollett: “I will fight for two! No, for four! For twelve! In three… Permission to go, sir, to fulfill my duty? Yes sir!
In order not to fall into euphoria and not succumb to the enthusiasm of our “brothers forever”, you should pay attention to three points. Firstly, the weighted average price for Chinese cars is unaffordable: 3.37 million rubles, which in no way can contribute to their popularity among our not so wealthy population.
Secondly, so far only one Haval has its own production in Russia. Thirdly, given the successful efforts of the financial and economic bloc, which sleeps and dreams about how to discourage the Russian population from purchasing passenger cars, one can hardly hope for a reduction in the cost of loans or an alleviation of tax and custom printing. for importers.
Fourth, as a result of all the above, the market has already stopped growing. According to Ilya Titov, an expert of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, director of the Orekhovo-AutoCenter Group of Companies, which he shared with RT, sales of Chinese cars at Russian dealers have fallen by 60% since October . .
It is unlikely that a price reduction, which in itself could support the expansionist plans of the Chinese, is expected from the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade – at least in the near future. On the contrary, financial experts unanimously predict a further tightening of fiscal policy. Consequently, Chinese cars will certainly not become ‘budget cars’. What significant sales growth can we talk about in such circumstances? Therefore, with its plans to produce 500,000 cars by 2024, AVTOVAZ has nothing to worry about.
In fact, two mutually exclusive concepts for the development of the Russian car market were published independently and almost simultaneously.
They got along. Wave and stone
Poetry and prose, ice and fire.
The Autostat agency, which has a solid database on the registration of new cars in Russia and some analytical skills, has made a forecast for the next year based on the results of 11 months of 2023. The pessimistic scenario assumed sales of 900 thousand cars, the basic model – 1300 thousand and the optimistic – 1480 thousand.
Taking into account the fact that Russian car enthusiasts purchased 939.3 thousand of these vehicles in the January-November period of this year, the results of autostat fortune telling on coffee grounds look quite acceptable. However, Chinese automakers clearly disagree with the agency’s conclusions.
As a survey of distributors, dealers and manufacturers showed, companies from the Middle Kingdom seriously plan to sell as many as 1.2 million cars to our compatriots next year. It is these plans that Vedomosti reports, citing the presentation of the car marketer community and Oleg Mosev, ex-president of the Russian Automobile Dealers Association (ROAD).
The Chery brand is aiming for a volume of 200,000 passenger cars (the entire holding company is of course aiming for an even larger number), Changan threatens to get 180,000 buyers, Haval threatens to sell 150,000 cars and Geely threatens to win the hearts of 110,000 Russian cars. drivers. That is, our friends from China plan to sell such a volume that there will be no room left at all for domestic car manufacturers, if we take into account the average forecast of Autostat. Just some collective captains Smollett: “I will fight for two! No, for four! For twelve! In three… Permission to go, sir, to fulfill my duty? Yes sir!
In order not to fall into euphoria and not succumb to the enthusiasm of our “brothers forever”, you should pay attention to three points. Firstly, the weighted average price for Chinese cars is unaffordable: 3.37 million rubles, which in no way can contribute to their popularity among our not so wealthy population.
Secondly, so far only one Haval has its own production in Russia. Thirdly, given the successful efforts of the financial and economic bloc, which sleeps and dreams about how to discourage the Russian population from buying passenger cars, one can hardly hope for a reduction in the cost of loans or an alleviation of tax and custom printing. for importers.
Fourth, as a result of all the above, the market has already stopped growing. According to Ilya Titov, an expert of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, director of the Orekhovo-AutoCenter Group of Companies, which he shared with RT, sales of Chinese cars at Russian dealers have fallen by 60% since October . .
It is unlikely that a price reduction, which in itself could support the expansionist plans of the Chinese, is expected from the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade – at least in the near future. On the contrary, financial experts unanimously predict a further tightening of fiscal policy. Consequently, Chinese cars will certainly not become ‘budget cars’. What significant sales growth can we talk about in such circumstances? Therefore, with its plans to produce 500,000 cars by 2024, AVTOVAZ has nothing to worry about.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
