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On New Year’s Eve it is customary not only to summarize the results, but also to make predictions. But although it is not difficult to evaluate the results
Making predictions is a thankless task, comparable to fortune telling using coffee grounds. “The future is hidden in a misty veil,” only gypsies can con, and even they lie shamelessly all the time. What can we ask of car experts, who are also constantly pointing their fingers to the sky? After all, their mistakes arise not because they do not master the subject, but because too many factors influence the final result, and it is simply unrealistic to take them all into account. In any case, it is a good thing that society’s short memory saves the ‘prophets’ from the wrath of the people, who are repeatedly misled in their expectations.
However, there are certain constants in the development of the Russian car market that can be followed from year to year and do not care about the variability of the world. However, they are the ones that are of greater interest to both experts and domestic motorists who have set their sights on purchasing another car. As you know, the great Russian culture was initially tormented by two questions: “Who is to blame?” and what should I do?” Russian motorists actually have only one eternal problem: will cars become more expensive next year?
It’s funny that the answer to this concern, you might say, lies on the surface. It is enough to monitor the dynamics of price changes for vehicles to immediately diagnose – yes, they will increase in price. Because since the birth of a more or less civilized car market in Russia twenty years ago, prices have never fallen, but sometimes increased once every six months. And in January-February – strictly.
This persistent trend was not affected by any disaster. She withstood the crises of 2008 and 2013 with honor, did not succumb to the pandemic and ignored the market collapse resulting from the introduction of large-scale sanctions against our country. The question is: why would she change now? Hence the mathematically precise conclusion: in the first two months of the new year, all price tags will be rewritten upwards, some a little earlier, some a little later. But absolute and necessary.
By the way, most experts do not dispute this prediction and use as justification the same set of factors that supposedly influence the price. This is irresistible inflation, clumsy government regulatory measures such as recycling collection, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, sanctions pressure, underdevelopment of local production, supply shortages and the machinations of the Central Bank.
All of the above can affect the price increase of cars, but are not decisive. For if deflation in Russia had begun beyond expectations, a reasonable stimulation of demand, the active development of its own factories, the exchange rate of the ruble had strengthened and stabilized, sanctions had disappeared and abundance had descended on the market, then essentially nothing would have changed. . And car prices would continue their difficult path to sky-high heights. There are many examples: both Russia in the ‘fat’ years and the West in prosperous periods.
But no, there are still inveterate optimists among the car experts, God bless them. For example, Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurement at the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management, shared the following considerations with AiF:
“As early as 2024, we can see a clear drop in prices for both Chinese and domestic cars. Market stabilization will come sooner or later. Moreover, I think that in 2024 a number of companies that left the Russian Federation in 2022 will return to the Russian car market. This will be another factor that will drive prices down.”
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, also exudes optimism – either by virtue of his position or by habit. In an interview with RIA Novosti, he stated: “With the gradual reduction of the basic rate and transport costs, we will ensure that the cost of cars for car manufacturers also gradually decreases or at least remains the same, according to some indicators.”
It would be nice to drink honey from the lips of the Deputy Prime Minister. But such fringe opinions are extremely rare. In principle, the distribution is around the percentage by which prices will rise. Deputy head of the analysis department of the Autostat agency Viktor Pushkarev expects them to increase by 10 to 12%. Renat Tyukteev, deputy general manager for new car sales at Avilon AG, agrees and suggests growth of 2-3% per quarter. Alexander Shaprinsky, development director of the Pragmatika dealer network, thinks this will be 5 to 10%.
The price dynamics of the past three years do not contribute to a good mood among buyers. In 2021, weighted average prices for passenger cars increased by 18%, in 2022 by 20% and over the ten months of 2023 by 23%. Against this background, even Viktor Pushkarev’s predictions seem too cautious. Especially when you remember the third corollary of Murphy’s Law: “Of all the problems, the one that causes the most damage will happen.”
Making predictions is a thankless task, comparable to fortune telling using coffee grounds. “The future is hidden in a misty veil,” only gypsies can con, and even they lie shamelessly all the time. What can we ask of car experts, who are also constantly pointing their fingers to the sky? After all, their mistakes arise not because they do not master the subject, but because too many factors influence the final result, and it is simply unrealistic to take them all into account. In any case, it is a good thing that society’s short memory saves the ‘prophets’ from the wrath of the people, who are repeatedly misled in their expectations.
However, there are certain constants in the development of the Russian car market that can be followed from year to year and do not care about the variability of the world. However, they are the ones that are of greater interest to both experts and domestic motorists who have set their sights on purchasing another car. As you know, the great Russian culture was initially tormented by two questions: “Who is to blame?” and what should I do?” Russian motorists actually have only one eternal problem: will cars become more expensive next year?
It’s funny that the answer to this concern, you might say, lies on the surface. It is enough to monitor the dynamics of price changes for vehicles to immediately diagnose – yes, they will increase in price. Because since the birth of a more or less civilized car market in Russia twenty years ago, prices have never fallen, but sometimes increased once every six months. And in January-February – strictly.
This persistent trend was not affected by any disaster. She withstood the crises of 2008 and 2013 with honor, did not succumb to the pandemic and ignored the market collapse resulting from the introduction of large-scale sanctions against our country. The question is: why would she change now? Hence the mathematically precise conclusion: in the first two months of the new year, all price tags will be rewritten upwards, some a little earlier, some a little later. But absolutely and certainly.
By the way, most experts do not dispute this prediction and use as justification the same set of factors that supposedly influence the price. This is irresistible inflation, clumsy government regulatory measures such as recycling collection, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, sanctions pressure, underdevelopment of local production, supply shortages and the machinations of the Central Bank.
All of the above can affect the price increase of cars, but are not decisive. For if deflation in Russia had begun beyond expectations, a reasonable stimulation of demand, the active development of its own factories, the exchange rate of the ruble had strengthened and stabilized, sanctions had disappeared and abundance had descended on the market, then essentially nothing would have changed. . And car prices would continue their difficult path to sky-high heights. There are many examples: both Russia in the ‘fat’ years and the West in prosperous periods.
But no, there are still inveterate optimists among the car experts, God bless them. For example, Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurement at the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management, shared the following considerations with AiF:
“As early as 2024, we can see a clear drop in prices for both Chinese and domestic cars. Market stabilization will come sooner or later. Moreover, I think that in 2024 a number of companies that left the Russian Federation in 2022 will return to the Russian car market. This will be another factor that will drive prices down.”
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, also exudes optimism – either by virtue of his position or by habit. In an interview with RIA Novosti, he stated: “With the gradual reduction of the basic rate and transport costs, we will ensure that the cost of cars for car manufacturers also gradually decreases or at least remains the same, according to some indicators.”
It would be nice to drink honey from the lips of the Deputy Prime Minister. But such fringe opinions are extremely rare. In principle, the distribution is around the percentage by which prices will rise. Deputy head of the analysis department of the Autostat agency Viktor Pushkarev expects them to increase by 10 to 12%. Renat Tyukteev, deputy general manager for new car sales at Avilon AG, agrees and suggests growth of 2-3% per quarter. Alexander Shaprinsky, development director of the Pragmatika dealer network, thinks this will be 5 to 10%.
The price dynamics of the past three years do not contribute to a good mood among buyers. In 2021, weighted average prices for passenger cars increased by 18%, in 2022 by 20% and over the ten months of 2023 by 23%. Against this background, even Viktor Pushkarev’s predictions seem too cautious. Especially when you remember the third corollary of Murphy’s Law: “Of all the problems, the one that causes the most damage will happen.”
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
