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Expert forecasts: how soon electric vehicles will replace ICE cars from Russia

  • July 26, 2022
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Today, electric vehicles make up only about 0.2% of the total Russian vehicle fleet. But the government has opted for ‘environmentally friendly’ transport: the government subsidizes the construction

Today, electric vehicles make up only about 0.2% of the total Russian vehicle fleet. But the government has opted for ‘environmentally friendly’ transport: the government subsidizes the construction of infrastructure, the production and purchase of ‘green’ cars. How will the segment develop under this circumstance? How fast do electric trains cross the 5% threshold? These and other questions were answered by the experts of the AvtoVzglyad portal.

For Russians, electric cars are something exotic – a kind of toy for the rich. However, the government has decided to change the situation: the authorities have adopted the “Concept for the development of the production and use of electric motor transport in the Russian Federation until 2030”, according to which electric trains will make at least 10% of the total after 8 years. volume of cars produced in Russia.

But how realistic is it to implement this plan, given all the negative circumstances? Such as, for example, underdeveloped infrastructure, the climatic characteristics of the country, high prices for electric vehicles, lack of proper maintenance and the banal reluctance of many car owners to abandon traditional combustion engines in favor of questionable “batteries”. Factories can of course produce ‘trains’ in hundreds of thousands of units, but does the market need such volumes?

– It is extremely difficult to make predictions. However, if the concept of electric vehicle development is implemented at least half way, I would say that electric cars will occupy about 5% of the market by 2027. At the same time, the infrastructure will also develop more actively – at least because it is a business, – said, speaking at an online conference of the AvtoVzglyad portal, an expert on electric vehicles Alexey Shvaikov.

– I’ll be careful not to make a quantitative prediction. There is an observation that each technology begins to actively supplant the previous one when the 5% threshold is crossed. And immediately after the “trains” pass it, the progress will accelerate greatly. And this 5% of the market in 5 years – I feel it is possible even faster, – added the observer of the Drom portal Sergey Tsyganov.

And more about the problems and prospects for the development of “green” transport – in the inclusion of the online conference of the portal “AvtoVzglyad” here.

For Russians, electric cars are something exotic – a kind of toy for the rich. However, the government has decided to change the situation: the authorities have adopted the “Concept for the development of the production and use of electric motor transport in the Russian Federation until 2030”, according to which electric trains will make at least 10% of the total after 8 years. volume of cars produced in Russia.

But how realistic is it to implement this plan, given all the negative circumstances? Such as, for example, underdeveloped infrastructure, the climatic characteristics of the country, high prices for electric vehicles, lack of proper maintenance and the banal reluctance of many car owners to abandon traditional combustion engines in favor of questionable “batteries”. Factories can of course produce ‘trains’ in hundreds of thousands of units, but does the market need such volumes?

– It is extremely difficult to make predictions. However, if the concept of electric vehicle development is implemented at least half way, I would say that electric cars will occupy about 5% of the market by 2027. At the same time, the infrastructure will also develop more actively – at least because it is a business, – said, speaking at an online conference of the AvtoVzglyad portal, an expert on electric vehicles Alexey Shvaikov.

– I’ll be careful not to make a quantitative prediction. There is an observation that each technology begins to actively supplant the previous one when the 5% threshold is crossed. And immediately after the “trains” pass it, the progress will accelerate greatly. And this 5% of the market in 5 years – I feel it is possible even faster, – added the observer of the Drom portal Sergey Tsyganov.

And more about the problems and prospects for the development of “green” transport – in the inclusion of the online conference of the portal “AvtoVzglyad” here.

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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