Why predictions from car market experts almost never come true
- April 24, 2023
- 0
In Russia’s rather waning car market, both before the start of the events of 2022 and beyond, quite a number of “experts” and “analysts” “graze” and continue to
In Russia’s rather waning car market, both before the start of the events of 2022 and beyond, quite a number of “experts” and “analysts” “graze” and continue to do so. They generously gift the results of their brain activity to virtually anyone who is ready (and not ready, either) to listen to them. However, all predictions should at least be taken with great skepticism. And why, explains the portal “AvtoVzglyad”.
No one will deny that the car market, like any other sector of the country’s economy, operates according to certain laws. However, this creates the illusion that familiarity with them allows you to actually calculate the future. That is, a logical equal sign is easily placed between the model formulated by someone and the reality to come.
In fact, knowledge of the laws of the car market is nothing more than a data set systematized by someone about the processes that took place in the past. In fact, we take a certain archive of events, identify some patterns in it, and sincerely hope that they will continue in the future. With such a look at “analysis and forecasting”, their seriousness is already starting to make me laugh. Why? To answer this question, it is enough to compare the market trends that seemed relevant to us in 2015, for example, with the trends that dominated in 2020, and then mentally impose them on the mechanisms that controlled the segment in 2022. Well, how many coincidences?
Yes, now we know it happens so, so and so. But how can this data help us make really reliable estimates of the Russian car market, for example in 2024? Or, with a mathematically acceptable error, predict events on it at least by the end of 2023? It is characteristic that such considerations do not at all prevent domestic auto experts from gushing with their expertise.
We also note that absolutely any model (as well as a virtual image of the modern domestic car market) is a product of simplification. No logical construction of this kind can work with absolutely all factors and parameters that take place in real life. Some of them should be neglected. But it is precisely the seemingly improbable or unimportant (and therefore not taken into account) events and processes that often play a leading role in shaping the actual state of affairs.
And then she, this reality, refuses in the most outrageous way to fit into the forecasts of seasoned experts and analysts of the auto market. Perhaps we will reveal a terrible professional secret, but most modern predictions about the future of the domestic car market are made according to a fairly simple recipe. For example, car sales statistics are taken for 2022. Mixed with officially announced plans and some industry insiders for the year 2023, and then all this is generously flavored with the personal “feel” of a certain expert.
The resulting “product” has been successfully leaked to social networks and the media in the form of comments or “independent analysis” in the near future. And “people hawala” all this … But, fortunately for forecasters, it almost never claims incorrect forecasts – people are already used to such a “blizzard”.
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No one will deny that the car market, like any other sector of the country’s economy, operates according to certain laws. However, this creates the illusion that familiarity with them allows you to actually calculate the future. That is, a logical equal sign is easily placed between the model formulated by someone and the reality to come.
In fact, knowledge of the laws of the car market is nothing more than a data set systematized by someone about the processes that took place in the past. In fact, we take a certain archive of events, identify some patterns in it, and sincerely hope that they will continue in the future. With such a look at “analysis and forecasting”, their seriousness is already starting to make me laugh. Why? To answer this question, it is enough to compare the market trends that seemed relevant to us in 2015, for example, with the trends that dominated in 2020, and then mentally impose them on the mechanisms that controlled the segment in 2022. Well, how many coincidences?
Yes, now we know it happens so, so and so. But how can this data help us make really reliable estimates of the Russian car market, for example in 2024? Or, with a mathematically acceptable error, predict events on it at least by the end of 2023? It is characteristic that such considerations do not at all prevent domestic auto experts from gushing with their expertise.
We also note that absolutely any model (as well as a virtual image of the modern domestic car market) is a product of simplification. No logical construction of this kind can work with absolutely all factors and parameters that take place in real life. Some of them should be neglected. But it is precisely the seemingly improbable or unimportant (and therefore not taken into account) events and processes that often play a leading role in shaping the actual state of affairs.
And then she, this reality, refuses in the most outrageous way to fit into the forecasts of seasoned experts and analysts of the auto market. Perhaps we will reveal a terrible professional secret, but most modern predictions about the future of the domestic car market are made according to a fairly simple recipe. For example, car sales statistics are taken for 2022. Mixed with officially announced plans and some industry insiders for the year 2023, and then all this is generously flavored with the personal “feel” of a certain expert.
The resulting “product” has been successfully leaked to social networks and the media in the form of comments or “independent analysis” in the near future. And “people hawala” all this … But, fortunately for forecasters, it almost never claims incorrect forecasts – people are already used to such a “blizzard”.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
