Multiple military analysts this week said Biden’s decision authorizing Ukraine to use long-range missiles like ATACMS to attack targets in Russia was perhaps too late to have a significant impact. Why? Russia had time to move key assets such as helicopters and aircraft armed with glider bombs out of range of the missiles, thus reducing their effectiveness. This is not Ukraine’s only failure. Guns literally don’t work for them.

Defective artillery. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reportedly ordered the withdrawal of up to 100,000 120 mm mortar rounds after identifying serious flaws in their operations. The projectiles produced by state-owned Ukroboronprom had malfunctions such as erratic explosions, jams in the launchers, and wet powder charges that prevented them from being launched properly.

According to public reports, only one in ten shells exploded correctly, and some even failed to exit the mortar.

Reasons. During the investigation, authorities state that the problem was caused by irregularities in production quality or storage. It has also been suggested that increased humidity and recent weather conditions may have affected the artillery’s handling.

Moreover, although the problem is limited to a specific batch for now, the extent of the withdrawal of all these weapons has led to criticism of the quality control system in national ammunition production.

Strategic influence. It is the other leg of an extreme situation such as a war conflict. Withdrawal directly affects defensive capacity at a critical moment in the war. Artillery was vital to containing Russia’s advance in the east; here there is attrition and high resource demand; This situation has increased even more with the latest Russian attacks in recent weeks.

The problem also complicates Ukraine’s strategy, which has relied on domestic production to make up for bullet shortages resulting from previous restrictions on international aid. Plus: This incident adds to other recent scandals in the procurement of military equipment in previous years, such as overpaying for poor quality food and clothing. In fact, the Ministry promised to replace the defective ammunition with imported bullets, but the incident highlights the need to strengthen surveillance processes.

Late “help”. We counted it at the beginning and it’s linked to 100,000 bullets. Finally, Biden approved the use of ATACMS missiles against Russian attack; this decision was followed by other allies, but also by the late delivery of weapons to Ukraine, possibly reflecting a pattern of continued hesitation on the part of the parties. The number of the United States and its allies, and with the advent of Trump, their numbers will increase.

The truth is that the West’s late decision limited Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute decisive attacks. In fact, Ukrainian soldiers expressed disappointment in this regard, stating that the support was only enough to resist, while President Zelenskyy noted that these limitations harmed his country’s ability to respond effectively.

What will happen to Trump? Perhaps that’s the big question for the foreseeable final stretch of the conflict. It is well known and widely known that Biden stepped up aid to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration; Trump also criticized US support for the conflict. Analysts believe this decision is politically rather than militarily driven and is intended to show that Ukraine remains a valuable investment.

But Trump’s allies question the usefulness of the latest measures, and there are concerns that the new administration could pressure Ukraine into making negative concessions with Russia to end the occupation once and for all.

Future strategies. While ATACMS could still be useful in disrupting Russian (and North Korean) logistics in areas such as Kursk, delays have limited this announced potential impact. With less than two months until the new US government takes office, the possibility of achieving a significant military victory using these systems seems nothing short of utopian.

This is a rather meaningless promise for Ukraine, which faces the challenge of maintaining international support while trying to maximize available resources in an uncertain and high-pressure environment.

Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

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