Scientists warn greenhouse gas emissions hit record level

50 leading scientists say human-caused global warming has continued to increase at an “unprecedented rate” since the last major assessment of the climate system, published two years ago. One of the researchers said the analysis was a “timely wake-up call” that the pace and scale of climate action was insufficient, and came as climate experts met in Bonn to lay the groundwork for the major COP28 climate conference in the UAE. In December, which will include a summary of progress in keeping global warming at 1.5°C by 2050.

Given the rate at which the global climate system is changing, scientists argue that policymakers, climate negotiators and civil society groups need access to up-to-date and reliable scientific evidence on which to base their decisions.

The authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the climate is the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but the timeframe for its main assessments is five or ten years, creating an “information gap” especially when climate indicators are inaccurate. is changing rapidly.

As part of the University-led initiative, scientists have developed an open data platform, an open scientific platform – indicators of global climate change, and a website (https://igcc.earth/). It will update information on key climate indicators every year.

A critical decade for climate change

The Global Indicators of Climate Change Project is coordinated by Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Center for Climate Change in Leeds. “This is a critical decade for climate change. Decisions made now will affect how high the temperature will rise and the extent and severity of the effects we see as a result.

“The long-term warming rate is now at a long-term maximum caused by the highest greenhouse gas emissions. But there is evidence that the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions is slowing.

“We must act wisely in the face of climate change. We need to change policies and approaches in light of the latest data on the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side. Access to historical information is vital.”

What do the updated indicators show?

• Human-caused warming, mostly from the combustion of fossil fuels, has averaged 1.14°C above pre-industrial levels over the past decade (2013–2022). This is 1.07°C from 2010 to 2019.
• Human-caused warming is currently increasing at a rate of more than 0.2°C per decade.
• The analysis also found that greenhouse gas emissions are at an “all-time high”, with human activities releasing an average of 54 (+/-5.3) gigatons (or billions of metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. every year for the last ten years (2012-2021).
• Positive steps have been taken from burning coal, but it has resulted in short-term costs as it contributes to global warming by reducing particulate air pollution with a cooling effect.

“Critical indicators for solving the climate crisis”

Professor Maisa Rojas Corradi, Chilean Minister of the Environment, IPCC author and scientist involved in this study, said: “Annual updating of key indicators of global change is crucial to help the international community and countries maintain the urgency of addressing the climate crisis as soon as possible. and for evidence-based decision making.

“In line with the ‘latch mechanism’ of the rising ambitions provided by the Paris Agreement, we need as often as possible scientific information on emissions, concentrations and temperature to keep international climate negotiations up to date and to make necessary adjustments and, if necessary, adapt to correct national policies. In the case of Chile, We have a climate change law that aims to align national policy with climate action.”

Balance of the carbon budget

One of the main findings of the analysis is the rate of reduction in the residual carbon budget, which is an estimate of how much carbon could be released into the atmosphere to give a 50% chance to keep global temperature rises within 1.5°C. In 2020, the IPCC estimated the remaining carbon budget to be around 500 gigatons of carbon dioxide. At the beginning of 2023, that figure was about half that – about 250 gigatons of carbon dioxide.

The reduction in the expected residual carbon budget is due to a combination of emissions from 2020 and updated estimates of anthropogenic warming. Professor Forster said: “While we haven’t reached 1.5°C of warming yet, the carbon budget is likely to run out in just a few years because we have the triplet of warming from very high CO2 emissions and increasing warming from other greenhouses. _gases . emissions from pollution reduction and warming.

“The world needs to work much harder and more urgently to reduce emissions if we don’t want the 1.5°C target to be lost in our rearview mirrors. Our goal for this project is to help key players get this important job done right away. With relevant and timely data at hand.”

From Paris Saclay University, who co-chaired Working Group 1 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and participated in the Climate Indicators Project, Dr. This is a timely wake-up call for the global repeal of the Paris Agreement in 2023 – the pace and scale of climate action is insufficient to limit the escalation of climate-related risks.”

As recent IPCC reports convincingly show, with each increase in global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate changes will increase, including extreme heat, heavy rains and agricultural droughts.

It will have annual updated information on global climate change indicators, greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic global warming and residual carbon budget. The website expands on a successful climate dashboard called Climate Change Monitor, created by software developers who take ideas from the financial industry on how to present complex information to the public.