Arianespace will launch a small geostationary communications satellite for Intelsat at Ariane 6 in 2026, signaling the stable but declining role of such satellites in the commercial launch market. Arianespace announced on September 12 that it signed a contract with Intelsat to launch the IS-45 satellite in the first half of 2026. The satellite will fly on Ariane 64, a more powerful version of Ariane 6, with unnamed passengers.

Intelsat ordered the IS-45 last November from Swissto12, a Swiss company that develops 3D printing technologies for space systems. The one-ton satellite will carry a payload of 12 Ku-band transponders. The satellite is based on the HummingSat platform developed by Swissto12 with support from the European Space Agency.

Arianespace and Intelsat noted that the IS-45 contract comes nearly 40 years after Arianespace performed its first launch for Intelsat, docking the Intelsat 507 satellite at GEO in October 1983.

The GEO satellite launch market has changed significantly in the four decades since Intelsat 507. Such satellites once formed the core of the commercial launch market, with an average of 20 to 25 satellites launched per year. However, this demand has fallen in recent years due to the transition to broadband arrays in low Earth orbit.

“This is a huge change,” Arianespace CEO Stephan Israel said during a panel discussion at Euroconsult’s World Satellite Business Week on September 11. “You have less and less, and array satellites are not as heavy as they used to be.”

Launch companies say the commercial GEO market remains important to them despite the drop in orders. “We see this market as being pretty stable with about 10 launches a year,” said Tory Bruno, general manager of United Launch Alliance. According to him, these satellites will increasingly become part of multi-orbit systems operating with LEO constellations. “I think the market remains pretty stable.”

“It’s still a big part of what we do,” said Tom Ochinero, SpaceX’s vice president of commercial sales. “This story of the GEO launch being stalled has been around for a long time. I do not see.”

However, executives acknowledged that the biggest driver of demand for the launch was broadband groups. Bruno noted that the design of such constellations requires a constant launch rate due to the constant replacement of older satellites even after the system is completed. “It’s definitely a dominant market with mega constellations in LEO.”

“We need constellations,” Israel said. “GEO is still here, but Constellation is certainly now a stronger engine for growth.”