According to Omdia, Microsoft’s ARM-based laptops will sell like hotcakes in the coming years, growing by 533.5 percent next year alone.

Analysts at market research firm Omdia predict that the market for ARM-based Windows computers will grow exponentially in the coming years. This year, the number of devices shipped would not reach the million mark with 800,000 laptops sold. However, by 2025, sales are expected to increase by 533.5 percent to 5.2 million devices, according to Omdia.

The researchers expect the increase to grow exponentially from then until at least 2029. In 2026, 14.5 million ARM Windows laptops would be sold, and in 2027 they predict that this number will double to 28.3 million units. Growth will continue to slow towards 2029, although 47.7 million ARM laptops with Windows will find their way to end customers by the end of the decade.

Alternative for adults

Omdia’s optimistic estimates show a future in which ARM becomes a full-fledged alternative to x86. Energy efficiency would attract customers. After all, ARM laptops are more powerful but thinner than their x86 equivalents. The battery also lasts longer. According to Omdia, ARM will allow manufacturers to build laptops that can easily compete with Apple’s MacBook Pro series. According to the analysts, ARM’s success with Windows will have an impact on MacBook sales.

In addition, Omdia expects a lot from generative AI. The photo and video editing capabilities should appeal even to users without entry-level experience, they say. This should also boost sales of ARM laptops, although we still have reservations about this prediction. After all, the most powerful and useful tools for generating content with AI are in the cloud, not on a laptop. You don’t need a new device to enjoy it.

Finally, Omdia notes that the x86 segment will not collapse. Driven by Microsoft’s AI PC branding, analysts expect computers with processors from Intel and AMD to also sell better in the coming years. The x86 laptops would also be by far the most popular in 2029, with a forecast of 121 million units shipped.

Hype and support

The predictions seem to be somewhat hype-sensitive. According to our analysis, Microsoft’s Copilot+ computers add little in the field of AI. We found that the ARM chips in new laptops add value. Whether these arguments are enough to trigger a rush for new devices seems questionable.

Microsoft plans to end support for Windows 10 in 2025 as planned. Because Redmond is somewhat artificially limiting Windows 11’s compatibility for older hardware, many perfectly good computers will suddenly become obsolete. The end of support is likely to be a far bigger driver for buying a new computer in the coming years.