glaciers Southern Patagonia They are protected by snowfall, but rapid warming could cause them to melt. It is critical to limit warming to 1.5°C; This underscores the need for global emissions reductions and more research on sea ice.

During periods of rapid glacier retreat, Southern Patagonia surprisingly retained much of its ice. But a new study published in Scientific Reports by INSTAAR PhD student Mathias Troch shows that this resilience may soon reach its limit.

Before making predictions, Troch and his colleagues took a look at the past. They used an equation that models glacier dynamics over the last six thousand years when coupled to NASA’s Ice Sheet and Sea Level System model. The results showed that for about 4,500 of the last 6,000 years, or 76 percent of the time, precipitation, not temperature, was the main cause of glacier fluctuations. Increasing snowfall in recent years has protected glaciers from rising global temperatures.

Hyperfocal simulations and basic evidence

These simulations were hyperfocused. Researchers have identified three interconnected glaciers on the ocean-facing, wet side of the Patagonian Mountain Range in southern Chile. This region had a clear scientific advantage. In 2005, the American research vessel Nathaniel B. Palmer” collected a core of sedimentary rocks from a nearby fjord. Troch and his colleagues obtained a sediment core and used it to test and refine their model. They actually got physical evidence that they were on the right track.

After matching the numerical model to the sediment core, the researchers began to wonder about the future. They were particularly interested in what would happen to glaciers under different emissions scenarios. If humanity stopped burning fossil fuels today, would glaciers continue to be preserved? What if we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions?

The future of Patagonian glaciers: hope or danger?

Troch and his colleagues found that if regional warming is kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius above turn-of-the-century levels, increased snowfall will continue to protect glaciers from melting. This criterion can be achieved. But to limit warming to this level, humanity will need to rapidly decarbonize; If current emissions continue, temperatures in Patagonia could rise to 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

“The study highlights the need for profound emissions reductions to protect glaciers, which are vital to limiting global sea level rise,” Troch said.

Researchers also modeled what would happen if we didn’t reduce emissions, and the outlook wasn’t that promising. Warmer and more humid climates can lead to rapid melting.

“This could push the glaciers into a new regime dominated by rain rather than snow,” Troch explained.

Troch hopes studies like his will strengthen the global call to action on green policies and practices. While climate news is often depressing, there is a lot of damage that can be prevented if humanity is committed to sustainable development.

“There is hope of preserving sea ice if we can limit emissions,” Troch said.

Troch also hopes the research will facilitate further research into sea ice around the world. Findings obtained in Southern Patagonia could be replicated in Norway, Alaska, Iceland or New Zealand. The only way to find out is to do more research.