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Our life-giving star, the Sun, is known as a grumpy person. This year alone, extremely powerful solar storms dazzled the world with aurora borealis at unexpectedly low latitudes.
Our life-giving star, the Sun, is known as a grumpy person. This year alone, extremely powerful solar storms dazzled the world with aurora borealis at unexpectedly low latitudes. So how violent can our star be?
Evidence of the sun’s most powerful “tantrums” (superflares) is hidden in prehistoric tree trunks and millennia-old glacial ice. However, these indirect sources do not allow us to determine the frequency of such events. Only direct measurements available since the beginning of the space age provide a limited perspective.
A recent study suggests a new approach: studying stars similar to our Sun to better understand their long-term behavior. An international group of researchers, observing thousands of sun-like stars with the help of space telescopes, decided to estimate how often superflares occur.
Director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS), Dr. “We have not been able to observe the Sun for thousands of years,” said Sami Solanki. “Instead, we can observe the behavior of thousands of stars very similar to the Sun over short periods of time. This helps us estimate how often superflares occur.”
Researchers collaborating with NASA’s Kepler mission analyzed data on 56,450 sun-like stars observed from 2009 to 2013. These observations covered an impressive 220,000 years of stellar activity.
from the University of Graz. “Kepler data indicate a total of 220,000 years of stellar activity,” said Alexander Shapiro.
To ensure accuracy, the researchers chose stars that were very similar to the Sun in terms of surface temperature and brightness. They carefully excluded errors caused by cosmic rays, passing asteroids or comets, ensuring that the flares were reliably attributed to sun-like stars. This rigorous process detected 2,889 superflares in 2,527 stars. On average, each Sun-like star produced a superflare approximately once a century.
Dr. from Paris-Cite University. “High-efficiency dynamo calculations of these solar-type stars easily explain the magnetic origin of the intense energy released during such superflares,” said Allan Sacha Brun.
The results were unexpected. The first author of the study is Dr. from MPS. “We were very surprised that Sun-like stars are prone to such frequent superflares,” said Valery Vasiliev. Previous studies had shown much longer intervals between such events, between 1,000 and 10,000 years. The high sensitivity of this study eliminated uncertainties in previous studies, where it was often difficult to identify sources of flares from nearby stars in telescope images.
Previous studies of solar extreme events on Earth have also indicated that superflares occur less frequently. Analyzing radioactive isotopes such as carbon-14 in tree rings and glacial ice, researchers identified five extreme solar flares that have occurred in the last 12,000 years. The most violent event occurred in 775 AD, an average of 1,500 years apart. However, these data may underestimate the true frequency of superflares.
“It is not clear whether giant explosions are always accompanied by coronal mass ejections and what the relationship is between superflares and extreme solar particle events. This requires further investigation,” said Dr. Ilya Usoskin. Current research suggests that data from terrestrial sources may miss many supersolar flares.
Although studies on Sun-like stars do not predict when the next superflare may occur, they underline the need to be careful.
“The new data are a stark reminder that even the most extreme solar events are part of the Sun’s natural repertoire,” said Dr Nathalie Kryvova from MPS. The 1859 Carrington Event, one of the most powerful solar storms on record, caused widespread telegraph malfunctions in Europe and North America. The associated flare released only a fraction of the superflare’s energy. The fact that such an event today would endanger satellites and modern infrastructure underscores the importance of accurate predictions.
ESA’s upcoming space mission Vigil aims to improve solar storm forecasts. The probe, planned to be launched in 2031, will monitor solar activity from a point in space and provide early warnings of potential solar storms. MPS is currently developing a polarimetric and magnetic camera for Vigil that will help detect processes that cause hazardous space weather. With the help of this technology, humanity would be better prepared for the Sun’s unpredictable “sleeps.”
Superflares, although rare, are still possible for our Sun. Understanding their frequency and impact is critical to preserving our technological civilization. This remarkable study of Sun-like stars and their superflares opens up new possibilities for predicting space weather and mitigating risks associated with our variable star. The study was published in the journal Science.
Source: Port Altele
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