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Authorities are preparing for a frenzied rise in gasoline prices in Russia

  • May 24, 2023
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From the point of view of an ordinary motorist, now in the country with gasoline everything is more or less decent. Prices, of course, are corrosive, but bearable

Authorities are preparing for a frenzied rise in gasoline prices in Russia
From the point of view of an ordinary motorist, now in the country with gasoline everything is more or less decent. Prices, of course, are corrosive, but bearable and stable. Meanwhile, something like a price explosion is brewing in the Russian motor fuel market.

A powerful economic “pot” in the bowels of the fuel market, out of sight of social networks, the media and the public, is slowly boiling, boiling, lifting the lid and already threatening to splash so that it will “splash” everyone . Indirectly, several signs speak about this. Thus, fuel stock prices are rising confidently. Recently, the cost of AI-95 set a record of all times and peoples of Russia: 61,790 rubles per ton!

Another bad “bell” was a report from Reuters about the Russian government’s plans to ban gasoline exports. Of course, the Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov soon announced that this was not a ban, but a restriction on exports – they say, everything is not so scary. But at the same time, the Federal Antimonopoly Service officially promised to support the restriction on the export of petroleum products.

Talking about blocking the imported gasoline “tap” was not easy. The fact is that the Russian government planned to radically “cut off” payments to oil tycoons already in the summer under the so-called fuel damper. With the help of this mechanism, it was possible for some time to limit the rise in prices at the country’s gas stations, from start to European “bars”. Deviating from the usual formula will save the Russian budget several tens of billions of rubles. But the nuance is that now the export of gasoline from Russia has more than doubled compared to the usual level.

Damper kept domestic prices under pressure, for example in 2021, when, with the annual production of gasoline in Russia at the level of 41 million tons, 84,000 barrels per day went abroad. And now about 185,000 barrels of gasoline are exported there per day at about the same refinery productivity. And at this time we “turn off” our “fuel damper”. A curtain…

But that’s not all. The European Union, the largest consumer of domestic diesel fuel, already gave up in February. China and India didn’t really need our diesel before. There are plenty of refineries there – the natives process our crude oil into motor fuel. Consequently, it is not necessary to make the usual amount of diesel fuel in Russia – there is simply no place to say it. But the trick is that about 300 kg of diesel and 240 kg of petrol are extracted from every ton of oil. In order to reduce the production of diesel, it will inevitably be necessary to reduce the volume of output and gasoline.

Ultimately, we see a forced drop in gasoline production at Russian refineries, a sharp increase in exports, and the government’s rejection of a fully-fledged mechanism to contain price tags at gas stations. This equation has one solution: a sharp rise in domestic motor fuel prices. And no “export restrictions” will help here. Because oil traders will still find a “hole” to intensively pump Russian gasoline abroad. And the native state will not blame them too strictly for this: it now needs foreign exchange income like air. And millions of Russian motorists are destined for their usual fate: wipe themselves, tighten their seat belts and pay, pay, pay for insanely more expensive fuel.

globallookpress.com’s photo

A powerful economic “pot” in the bowels of the fuel market, out of sight of social networks, the media and the public, is slowly boiling, boiling, lifting the lid and already threatening to splash so that it will “splash” everyone . Indirectly, several signs speak about this. Thus, fuel stock prices are rising confidently. Recently, the cost of AI-95 set a record of all times and peoples of Russia: 61,790 rubles per ton!

Another bad “bell” was a report from Reuters about the Russian government’s plans to ban gasoline exports. Of course, the Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov soon announced that this was not a ban, but a restriction on exports – they say, everything is not so scary. But at the same time, the Federal Antimonopoly Service officially promised to support the restriction on the export of petroleum products.

Talking about blocking the imported gasoline “tap” was not easy. The fact is that the Russian government planned to radically “cut off” payments to oil tycoons already in the summer under the so-called fuel damper. With the help of this mechanism, it was possible for some time to limit the rise in prices at the country’s gas stations, from start to European “bars”. Deviating from the usual formula will save the Russian budget several tens of billions of rubles. But the nuance is that now the export of gasoline from Russia has more than doubled compared to the usual level.

Damper kept domestic prices under pressure, for example in 2021, when, with the annual production of gasoline in Russia at the level of 41 million tons, 84,000 barrels per day went abroad. And now about 185,000 barrels of gasoline are exported there per day at about the same refinery productivity. And at this time we “turn off” our “fuel damper”. A curtain…

But that’s not all. The European Union, the largest consumer of domestic diesel fuel, already gave up in February. China and India didn’t really need our diesel before. There are plenty of refineries there – the natives process our crude oil into motor fuel. Consequently, it is not necessary to make the usual amount of diesel fuel in Russia – there is simply no place to say it. But the trick is that about 300 kg of diesel and 240 kg of petrol are extracted from every ton of oil. In order to reduce the production of diesel, it will inevitably be necessary to reduce the volume of output and gasoline.

Ultimately, we see a forced drop in gasoline production at Russian refineries, a sharp increase in exports, and the government’s rejection of a fully-fledged mechanism to contain price tags at gas stations. This equation has one solution: a sharp rise in domestic motor fuel prices. And no “export restrictions” will help here. Because oil traders will still find a “hole” to intensively pump Russian gasoline abroad. And the native state will not blame them too strictly for this: it now needs foreign exchange income like air. And millions of Russian motorists are destined for their usual fate: wipe themselves, tighten their seatbelts and pay, pay, pay for insanely more expensive fuel.

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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