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Mark Twain said, “If facts are stubborn things, then statistics are more flexible things.” Long before all the problems plaguing the Russian auto industry in 2022, there were
Monthly reports of the Russian Committee of Automakers of the Association of European Companies (AEB) on the situation in our car market have been considered one of the main sources of information in this area for more than a decade and a half. The organization operated exclusively with the data that the car brands themselves provided to it. That is, the number of cars transferred by representative offices to their dealers. Which, as we understand it, was sometimes very inconsistent with real car sales numbers. Everyone knew this nuance and put up with the situation. And only now something should change in this area, so there is a high probability that the picture of what is happening in the domestic market can approach objectivity. Here it is – Marktven’s flexibility of stats!
From now on, AEB will not only use declarations from official car suppliers to Russia in its regular reports, but also data on the transfer of vehicles to end customers. This information is shared by JSC PPK – “Electronic Passport”. The magnitude of the discrepancies in automotive market estimates described above is vividly illustrated by a new AEB report, made using a new methodology. For example, according to dealers (a common source of information), 359,000 cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in January and June. And according to information from the “Electronic Passport”, sales amounted to 428,000 units.
It turns out that according to dealer data, the country’s car market fell by 3.1% compared to last year, and, according to the “electronic passport”, on the contrary, grew by almost 10%. The “chest” is opened simply: “holders of an electronic passport” take into account all car sales, including cars imported into Russia under various “gray” schemes and parallel imports.
Aleksey Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee, believes that this supply channel is now very relevant, but the perceived depreciation of the ruble is causing it to become less and less in demand. To complete the picture, let’s say that in the first half of 2022 “alternatives” accounted for only 2% of cars sold on the Russian market, and in January-June of the current year, almost 20% of them such cars.
For more than understandable reasons, only 56% of locally assembled machines are sold here, while a year ago the same figure was at the level of 82%. By the way, it is curious that, according to Kalitsev, the market share of cars assembled in Russia by the end of 2023 should grow almost to the usual level of 70-80% in previous years. He relates this, among other things, to the entry of new players and models into our market. Among the latter, he highlights the sedan segment. According to him, corporate parks are currently experiencing an acute shortage of four-doors. And in the second half of the year, a huge increase in just such proposals is expected, which will meet the strong pent-up demand for them.
Whether we will have a boom in this segment remains to be seen in the near future. And right now, the AEB has caused a small sensation by issuing a forecast for the growth of the Russian market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles to 1 million units by the end of 2023. Recall that in 2022 there will only be more than 600,000 cars were sold in the country.
Until recently, car market players and experts agreed on a forecast of a final figure of 750,000 – 800,000 sales of passenger cars in Russia in 2023. It must be assumed that the representatives of the AEB made a “prediction for a million” on based on the data of the “Electronic Passport” of the past six months. Some doubts about its feasibility are sown by at least two factors. They are even able to eliminate the chance to repeat the results of the first in the second half of the year. Not to mention exceeding it.
First, there are two months of summer ahead. Even at the best of times, car sales fell in July and August. Simply because this is the high season and people think much less about buying cars at such a time than, for example, in the spring or autumn. Secondly, we will have to take into account the factor of a sharp plunge of the ruble. The share of imported cars in the existing structure of Russian sales, according to the AEB itself, totals about 45%, if we include both official and “alternative” deliveries. The ruble, rushing to the mark of 100 per dollar, will radically drive up the prices of imported foreign cars, and this will inevitably lead to a drop in sales. Which calls into question the validity of hopes for the car market to recover to about a million marks this year.
Monthly reports of the Russian Committee of Automakers of the Association of European Companies (AEB) on the situation in our car market have been considered one of the main sources of information in this area for more than a decade and a half. The organization operated exclusively with the data that the car brands themselves provided to it. That is, the number of cars transferred by representative offices to their dealers. Which, as we understand it, was sometimes very inconsistent with real car sales numbers. Everyone knew this nuance and put up with the situation. And only now something should change in this area, so there is a high probability that the picture of what is happening in the domestic market can approach objectivity. Here it is – Marktven’s flexibility of stats!
From now on, AEB will not only use declarations from official car suppliers to Russia in its regular reports, but also data on the transfer of vehicles to end customers. This information is shared by JSC PPK – “Electronic Passport”. The magnitude of the discrepancies in automotive market estimates described above is vividly illustrated by a new AEB report, made using a new methodology. For example, according to dealers (a common source of information), 359,000 cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in January and June. And according to information from the “Electronic Passport”, sales amounted to 428,000 units.
It turns out that according to dealer data, the country’s car market fell by 3.1% compared to last year, and, according to the “electronic passport”, on the contrary, grew by almost 10%. The “chest” is opened simply: “holders of an electronic passport” take into account all car sales, including cars imported into Russia under various “gray” schemes and parallel imports.
Aleksey Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee, believes that this supply channel is now very relevant, but the perceived depreciation of the ruble is causing it to become less and less in demand. To complete the picture, let’s say that in the first half of 2022 “alternatives” accounted for only 2% of cars sold on the Russian market, and in January-June of the current year, almost 20% of them such cars.
For more than understandable reasons, only 56% of locally assembled machines are sold here, while a year ago the same figure was at the level of 82%. By the way, it is curious that, according to Kalitsev, the market share of cars assembled in Russia by the end of 2023 should grow almost to the usual level of 70-80% in previous years. He relates this, among other things, to the entry of new players and models into our market. Among the latter, he highlights the sedan segment. According to him, corporate parks are currently experiencing an acute shortage of four-doors. And in the second half of the year, a huge increase in just such proposals is expected, which will meet the strong pent-up demand for them.
Whether we will have a boom in this segment remains to be seen in the near future. And right now, the AEB has caused a small sensation by issuing a forecast for the growth of the Russian market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles to 1 million units by the end of 2023. Recall that in 2022 there will only be more than 600,000 cars were sold in the country.
Until recently, car market players and experts agreed on a forecast of a final figure of 750,000 – 800,000 sales of passenger cars in Russia in 2023. It must be assumed that the representatives of the AEB made a “prediction for a million” on based on the data of the “Electronic Passport” of the past six months. Some doubts about its feasibility are sown by at least two factors. They are even able to eliminate the chance to repeat the results of the first in the second half of the year. Not to mention exceeding it.
First, there are two months of summer ahead. Even at the best of times, car sales fell in July and August. Simply because this is the high season and people think much less about buying cars at such a time than, for example, in the spring or autumn. Secondly, we will have to take into account the factor of a sharp plunge of the ruble. The share of imported cars in the existing structure of Russian sales, according to the AEB itself, totals about 45%, if we include both official and “alternative” deliveries. The ruble, rushing to the mark of 100 per dollar, will radically drive up the prices of imported foreign cars, and this will inevitably lead to a drop in sales. Which calls into question the validity of hopes for the car market to recover to about a million marks this year.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
