Why gasoline in Russia can become cheaper again
- July 12, 2023
- 0
It seems that the rise in prices at gas stations, which has been observed recently, will never end. Despite this, there are clear conditions for halting growth and
It seems that the rise in prices at gas stations, which has been observed recently, will never end. Despite this, there are clear conditions for halting growth and reversing the price tags.
To start with the sad. Once again, the wholesale cost of fuel on the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange broke through a new “ceiling”. A ton of AI-92 has become worth almost 60,000 rubles. To be absolutely precise – 59,816 rubles. This is 45.5 rubles per liter. And AI-95 at the same time increased to 66,556 rubles per ton, which is equivalent to almost 50.5 rubles / liter. Scary? And then! But I suggest to “rewind” time a bit and look, for example, at what happened three weeks ago on the same stock exchange. They also “broke” the price ceilings and the floor of the oil monopolist’s greed. True, at levels slightly lower than the current record – a few thousand rubles per ton less.
But the fact is that the rate of growth in gasoline prices has clearly slowed. Up for now more than 70% compared to the January 2023 level. Recall that this happened because of the situation in foreign markets. It was profitable for Russian oilmen to drive fuel there. It is not for nothing that the volume of petrol exports has increased by almost 40% in 2023 and the supply to the St. Petersburg stock exchange has decreased by 8% compared to the level of 2022.
As a result, there was a noticeable shortage of fuel in the domestic Russian market, which led to price increases. And even the shouting of the FAS did not have a strong effect on the oil product traders. But recently a factor has emerged that may cool the “fever” of export gasoline.
Bloomberg last week recorded a sharp drop in crude oil exports from Russian ports – from nearly 4 million barrels a day to 2.86 million.80% of the drop came from the Baltic and White Sea ports. Perhaps this is due to a sharp decline (to about $4 a barrel) in the discount that foreign buyers of domestic oil now receive. All this means that the surpluses of “black gold” are already beginning to accumulate in the country. So that it “does not roll in vain”, oil companies will have to send it for processing.
Which will lead to an increase in motor fuel reserves already in Russia. Including gasoline. Yes, they will try to sell some of it to foreign buyers. But the trick is that the global gasoline market is much tighter than the oil market. There are plenty of supplier companies from China and India. In the end, we will probably have an increase in the supply of gasoline in the Russian wholesale market. And then (well, what the hell is not a joke!) Prices at Russian gas stations may also “move” downwards.
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To start with the sad. Once again, the wholesale cost of fuel on the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange broke through a new “ceiling”. A ton of AI-92 has become worth almost 60,000 rubles. To be absolutely precise – 59,816 rubles. This is 45.5 rubles per liter. And AI-95 at the same time increased to 66,556 rubles per ton, which is equivalent to almost 50.5 rubles / liter. Scary? And then! But I suggest to “rewind” time a bit and look, for example, at what happened three weeks ago on the same stock exchange. They also “broke” the price ceilings and the floor of the oil monopolist’s greed. True, at levels slightly lower than the current record – a few thousand rubles per ton less.
But the fact is that the rate of growth in gasoline prices has clearly slowed. Up for now more than 70% compared to the January 2023 level. Recall that this happened because of the situation in foreign markets. It was profitable for Russian oilmen to drive fuel there. It is not for nothing that the volume of petrol exports has increased by almost 40% in 2023 and the supply to the St. Petersburg stock exchange has decreased by 8% compared to the level of 2022.
As a result, there was a noticeable shortage of fuel in the domestic Russian market, which led to price increases. And even the shouting of the FAS did not have a strong effect on the oil product traders. But recently a factor has emerged that may cool the “fever” of export gasoline.
Bloomberg last week recorded a sharp drop in crude oil exports from Russian ports – from nearly 4 million barrels a day to 2.86 million.80% of the drop came from the Baltic and White Sea ports. Perhaps this is due to a sharp decline (to about $4 a barrel) in the discount that foreign buyers of domestic oil now receive. All this means that the surpluses of “black gold” are already beginning to accumulate in the country. So that it “does not roll in vain”, oil companies will have to send it for processing.
Which will lead to an increase in motor fuel reserves already in Russia. Including gasoline. Yes, they will try to sell some of it to overseas buyers. But the trick is that the global gasoline market is much tighter than the oil market. There are plenty of supplier companies from China and India. In the end, we will probably have an increase in the supply of gasoline in the Russian wholesale market. And then (well, what the hell is not a joke!) Prices at Russian gas stations may also “move” downwards.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
