A month ago, as they say, “nothing foreshadowed.” At least from the point of view of an ordinary motorist who is going to buy a car. This is evidenced by sales statistics: in July, Russian banks issued car loans for about 165 billion rubles – 30.5% more than a month earlier. This figure in itself is a record for the entire history of car loans in Russia.
And the number of loans turned out to be unprecedented: 113,600 contracts per month (37% higher than in June). Some car experts have even started to speak softly about the recovery of the Russian car market as a whole. Despite the fact that the lion’s share of its sales are in the used vehicle segment, almost 70% of new car sales fall on vehicles of Chinese origin.
But then the dollar rose to 100 rubles. The Central Bank of Russia could not convince everyone and everyone of the “maintenance of macro-financial stability”, spat on and immediately raised the policy rate from 8.5% to 12%. The problem is that the level of interest on loans for the population and, in particular, car loans directly depends on it.
– A rise in Central Bank interest rates is usually reflected in consumer loans with a lag of about two weeks. According to experience, an additional 3% of the base rate turns into a 1.5-2% increase in the average cost of banking products for citizens, – Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, told the AvtoVzglyad portal.
And Arikapital Management Company’s chief investment strategist, Sergey Suverov, believes consumer loan rates will strengthen — adding 3%.
That is, you can forget about car loans at 11-14% per annum. Within a week, banks will recalculate it to the level of 13-17%. That will cut off quite a few potential buyers and car dealers will be sad. But the rise in auto loan rates will be just the icing on the cake alongside other problems that occurred in August this year.
Earlier, on the 1st of the month, the government increased the recycling fee for cars. It alone causes an increase in the price of cars with an engine capacity of less than two liters by 120,000 rubles. For cars with larger engines, the size of the “scrap” is much more important.
At the same time, against the ruble, the dollar exchange rate did not fall much against the backdrop of the rise in the Central Bank’s policy stance.
– In addition to raising policy rates, the authorities will use other mechanisms to stabilize rates. Includes levers for controlling the movement of currencies. As a result, the dollar should stabilize between 95 and 100 rubles, Suverov told the AvtoVzglyad portal.
Now in foreign exchange trade for one American they give 96 Russian notes. Meanwhile, car dealerships will soon run out of cars imported into Russia at a rate of 76-80 rubles per dollar. The following batches have been bought and are already being bought for 90 rubles for one “evergreen” and more. You can calculate yourself how much the vehicle will increase in price as a result. And they will not become cheaper, since no one is going to seriously strengthen the ruble.
It seems that all three negative “August” factors (the fall of the ruble, an increase in salvage costs and an increase in interest rates on car loans) will fully manifest themselves in September. Such “synergy” will inevitably drive up prices in the Russian market and lead to a sharp contraction.
A month ago, as they say, “nothing foreshadowed.” At least from the point of view of an ordinary motorist who is going to buy a car. This is evidenced by sales statistics: in July, Russian banks issued car loans for about 165 billion rubles – 30.5% more than a month earlier. This figure in itself is a record for the entire history of car loans in Russia.
And the number of loans turned out to be unprecedented: 113,600 contracts per month (37% higher than in June). Some car experts have even started to speak softly about the recovery of the Russian car market as a whole. Despite the fact that the lion’s share of its sales are in the used vehicle segment, almost 70% of new car sales fall on vehicles of Chinese origin.
But then the dollar rose to 100 rubles. The Central Bank of Russia could not convince everyone and everyone of the “maintenance of macro-financial stability”, spat on and immediately raised the policy rate from 8.5% to 12%. The problem is that the level of interest on loans for the population and, in particular, car loans directly depends on it.
– A rise in Central Bank interest rates is usually reflected in consumer loans with a lag of about two weeks. According to experience, an additional 3% of the base rate turns into a 1.5-2% increase in the average cost of banking products for citizens, – Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, told the AvtoVzglyad portal.
And Arikapital Management Company’s chief investment strategist, Sergey Suverov, believes consumer loan rates will strengthen — adding 3%.
That is, you can forget about car loans at 11-14% per annum. Within a week, banks will recalculate it to the level of 13-17%. That will cut off quite a few potential buyers and car dealers will be sad. But the rise in interest rates on car loans will be just the “icing on the cake” among other problems that emerged in August this year.
Earlier, on the 1st of the month, the government increased the recycling fee for cars. It alone causes an increase in the price of cars with an engine capacity of less than two liters by 120,000 rubles. For cars with larger engines, the size of the “scrap” is much more important.
At the same time, against the ruble, the dollar exchange rate did not fall much against the backdrop of the rise in the Central Bank’s policy stance.
– In addition to raising policy rates, the authorities will use other mechanisms to stabilize rates. Includes levers for controlling the movement of currencies. As a result, the dollar should stabilize between 95 and 100 rubles, Suverov told the AvtoVzglyad portal.
Now in foreign exchange trade for one American they give 96 Russian notes. Meanwhile, car dealerships will soon run out of cars imported into Russia at a rate of 76-80 rubles per dollar. The following batches have been bought and are already being bought for 90 rubles for one “evergreen” and more. You can calculate yourself how much the vehicle will increase in price as a result. And they will not become cheaper, since no one is going to seriously strengthen the ruble.
It seems that all three negative “August” factors (the fall of the ruble, an increase in salvage costs and an increase in interest rates on car loans) will fully manifest themselves in September. Such “synergy” will inevitably drive up prices in the Russian market and lead to a sharp contraction.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.