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Why you should not even hope for the mass appearance of electric vehicles in Russia

  • September 4, 2023
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It is clear that where America is now and where we are. But ideology and international politics fade into the background when it comes to the objective laws

Why you should not even hope for the mass appearance of electric vehicles in Russia
It is clear that where America is now and where we are. But ideology and international politics fade into the background when it comes to the objective laws of the development of the automotive industry. In this sense, the experience of planting electromobility in the United States is not without interest for us. After all, they have traveled this path much further than Russia.

The fashion for everything electric is still standing still in our country, unlike the United States. Abroad, the economic flywheel of the transition to this supposedly environmentally friendly mode of transport is already turning in earnest. And now there is a process of preparation for a large-scale quantitative leap: gigantic factories are being built for the production of batteries for electric trains. Similar facilities are being created in the United States by Hyundai Motor Group with LG Energy Solutions, Toyota Motor with Stellantis, General Motors with Samsung SDI and others.

In total, about ten companies will supply millions of ‘batteries’ to car assembly lines in the coming years. And millions of new electric vehicles will roll onto the roads of the North American continent almost in one gulp.

Already some people there are starting to think: how exactly are they going to ‘feed’ them with energy? In particular, the American Manhattan Institute (Manhattan Institute) published its study with the eloquent title ‘Electric vehicles for everyone? An impossible dream.” It is clear that she is working with costs and estimates inherent in American economic realities. But the general logic and development patterns of the electric transportation industry are universal. Therefore, the calculations of the Manhattan people are also interesting to us.

Among other things, it says that a home station for charging an electric car at night costs about $3,000. In Russia, such a device costs about $ 1,500. It works with powers in the range of 7-19 kW.

The popularity of electric vehicles is accompanied by a charging time of almost five minutes, which is on average required to fill a full tank of fuel in a car with an internal combustion engine. Fast chargers for electric cars have capacities of 300-1000 kW. In the US they now cost $400,000, while a vending machine at a gas station costs $150,000. At the same time, ‘fast’ electric charging today still cannot compete with refueling in terms of speed.

To get closer to traditional gas stations in the battle for efficiency, electric charging stations with even greater capacity and therefore prices will have to be created. In addition, to avoid queues at the “green” complexes of the future, each of them must be equipped with at least four “sockets”. The Americans calculated that the costs of arranging such an object would be at least twice as high as for a traditional gas station. A small electric filling station for 3-4 cars – we will call them EZS for short, by analogy with gas stations – local power grids are usually able to “pull”.

But in a crowded place, you may need a point with a few dozen “nipples” to power electric vehicles. Such a facility, as customers flow in, will create roughly the same demand for energy in the power grid as a small steel mill. Such loads drastically shorten the life of high-voltage transformers and will therefore force network companies to transfer them to more sophisticated (and many times more expensive) devices.

Also, the researchers at the Manhattan Institute predict the need to replace about 180 million additional electricity transmission towers – so that the latter can transmit the increased power from generation to EZS consumers. The study’s authors estimate that the complex of these measures, caused by the mass transition to electric vehicles, will require trillions of dollars. Which are not only available to electricity companies and potential owners of EZS, but also to government agencies.

In Russia, as you know, everything is fine with electricity generation. And the electricity grid will probably even be able to handle a double overload just fine. But in a situation similar to the one about to “cover” the US market, I’m afraid they won’t either. So let’s especially thank the practicality of the majority of domestic motorists – for the fact that they do not want to massively, like lemmings, switch to electric vehicles!

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The fashion for everything electric is still standing still in our country, unlike the United States. Abroad, the economic flywheel of the transition to this supposedly environmentally friendly mode of transport is already turning in earnest. And now there is a process of preparation for a large-scale quantitative leap: gigantic factories are being built for the production of batteries for electric trains. Similar facilities are being created in the United States by Hyundai Motor Group with LG Energy Solutions, Toyota Motor with Stellantis, General Motors with Samsung SDI and others.

In total, about ten companies will supply millions of ‘batteries’ to car assembly lines in the coming years. And millions of new electric vehicles will roll onto the roads of the North American continent almost in one gulp.

Already some people there are starting to think: how exactly are they going to ‘feed’ them with energy? In particular, the American Manhattan Institute (Manhattan Institute) published its study with the eloquent title ‘Electric vehicles for everyone? An impossible dream.” It is clear that she works with costs and estimates inherent in the American economic reality. But the general logic and development patterns of the electric transport sector are universal. Therefore, the calculations of the Manhattan people are also of interest to us .

Among other things, it says that a home station for charging an electric car at night costs about $3,000. In Russia, such a device costs about $ 1,500. It works with powers in the range of 7-19 kW.

The popularity of electric vehicles is accompanied by a charging time of almost five minutes, which is on average required to fill a full tank of fuel in a car with an internal combustion engine. Fast chargers for electric cars have capacities of 300-1000 kW. In the US they now cost $400,000, while a vending machine at a gas station costs $150,000. At the same time, ‘fast’ electric charging today still cannot compete with refueling in terms of speed.

To get closer to traditional gas stations in the battle for efficiency, electric charging stations with even greater capacity and therefore prices will have to be created. In addition, to avoid queues at the “green” complexes of the future, each of them must be equipped with at least four “sockets”. The Americans calculated that the costs of arranging such an object would be at least twice as high as for a traditional gas station. A small electric filling station for 3-4 cars – we will call them EZS for short, by analogy with gas stations – local power grids are usually able to “pull”.

But in a crowded place, you may need a point with a few dozen “nipples” to power electric vehicles. Such a facility, as customers flow in, will create roughly the same demand for energy in the grid as a small steel mill. Such loads drastically shorten the life of high-voltage transformers and will therefore force network companies to transfer them to more sophisticated (and many times more expensive) devices.

Also, the researchers at the Manhattan Institute predict the need to replace about 180 million additional electricity transmission towers – so that the latter can transmit the increased power from generation to EZS consumers. The study’s authors estimate that the complex of these measures, caused by the mass transition to electric vehicles, will require trillions of dollars. Which are not only available to electricity companies and potential owners of EZS, but also to government agencies.

In Russia, as you know, everything is fine with electricity generation. And the electricity grid will probably even be able to handle a double overload just fine. But in a situation similar to the one about to “cover” the US market, I’m afraid they won’t either. So let’s especially thank the practicality of the majority of domestic motorists – for the fact that they do not want to massively, like lemmings, switch to electric vehicles!

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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