April 27, 2025
Auto

When will Western and Asian car manufacturers inevitably return to the Russian market?

  • November 14, 2023
  • 0

The mass exodus of foreign car brands from Russia in 2022 not only caused the domestic car market to collapse, but actually collapsed. But in 2023 he clearly

When will Western and Asian car manufacturers inevitably return to the Russian market?
The mass exodus of foreign car brands from Russia in 2022 not only caused the domestic car market to collapse, but actually collapsed. But in 2023 he clearly began to actively recover in the new reality. In this regard, after some time it will be extremely interesting to see how the “fugitive” car manufacturers will desperately try to return to us.

The well-known acts of violence that have occurred in the domestic auto market in recent years are ultimately caused by the actions of the United States and its allies. Many years of growth from the “descendants of the proto-Ukrainians,” an anti-Russian military ram, the SVO and numerous Western sanctions – these are all the tricks of overseas guys who crushed the Europeans under their influence. Well, of course: the United States is the world’s largest economy, the most powerful armed forces, the most effective “bundle” of business and foreign policy. They can enjoy themselves on the infamous ‘world stage’.

But it seems that the overseas dominance is not as long-lasting as it seems. Recently, the last of the world’s three largest rating agencies – Moody’s – downgraded expectations for the US economy from “stable” to “negative”. Previously, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch did the same. The current rating of the United States is consistently high in their view, but the economic future is clearly very bleak. The culprit is the country’s gigantic budget deficit: currently it stands at 6.3% of GDP. Which has been effectively covered by printing new debt obligations for more than half a century.

The United States has always been regarded as an excellent debtor, diligently and fully fulfilling its obligations. That is why, fortunately, the entire financial world continues to buy more and more US government bonds. For now it will continue.

The point is that, given current economic realities, the global financial system may not be able to ‘digest’ the entire volume of US government bonds. The current rate of growth of the US government debt will lead to the United States spending so much more than it receives that this will no longer fit into any conceivable economic framework.

And this will happen not in a short-lived future, but in the next few years – when about a quarter of all US budget expenditures will be spent paying interest on the national debt. With such a budget deficit, the overseas state will have to borrow even more to pay off old debts, making this “snowball” even bigger. Dealing with these types of borrowers (with the US in this situation) is becoming an increasingly risky investment for any lender. And they charge the debtor an increased percentage for the risk! Which plunges the latter even deeper into debt. Until bankruptcy – if he doesn’t find a way to pay.

In the case of the United States, if everything goes as it is, a real bankruptcy (treasury bankruptcy) is expected by 2030 at the latest. This will happen if the state fails to sharply reduce its expenditure. After all, none of the leading economists even mention a significant increase in US budget revenues. Even the cruel Trump will of course not dare to cut back on ‘social services’, a gigantic expenditure item in the American state budget. Abroad, they will be forced to cut back on other expenses.

In particular, it must be assumed that the United States will no longer have enough money to finance the “Ukrainian project” as early as 2024. Which will lead to fully transparent consequences for the SVO’s price. But they are still flowers. The berries for the Americans will lie in something else.

Due to budgetary problems looming in the coming years, they will no longer be able to pose as a global gendarme, effectively controlling most of the ‘elites’ of Europe, Japan and Korea – through finances and behind-the-scenes pressure the secret services. This will lead to the current leaders of European and Asian politics being driven out of power in their countries by alternative characters. The weakening of the overseas “suzerain” of the Europeans, as well as the actual extinction of the populations of Japan and South Korea (if that is a demographic fact) against the background of a prosperous and growing power of China will force the American allies to make peace with Russia. Although without joy.

They will try to do this for the sake of our cheap natural resources. For example, only thanks to their supplies until March 2022 could the EU countries live comfortably and lead the world technologically. Thus, just a few years after the end of the military phase of the Ukrainian conflict, the political economy will force Europeans and pro-American Asians to restore ties with sanctions-damaged Russia. And then fugitive car brands will enter our market like little ones. Either as independent business entities or as satellites of Chinese car manufacturers.

photo globallookpress.com
photo globallookpress.com

The well-known acts of violence that have occurred in the domestic auto market in recent years are ultimately caused by the actions of the United States and its allies. Many years of growth from the “descendants of the proto-Ukrainians,” an anti-Russian military ram, the SVO and numerous Western sanctions – these are all the tricks of overseas guys who crushed the Europeans under their influence. Well, of course: the United States is the world’s largest economy, the most powerful armed forces, the most effective “bundle” of business and foreign policy. They can enjoy themselves on the infamous ‘world stage’.

But it seems that the overseas dominance is not as long-lasting as it seems. Recently, the last of the world’s three largest rating agencies – Moody’s – downgraded expectations for the US economy from “stable” to “negative”. Previously, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch did the same. The current rating of the United States is consistently high in their view, but the economic future is clearly very bleak. The culprit is the country’s gigantic budget deficit: currently it stands at 6.3% of GDP. Which has been effectively covered by printing new debt obligations for more than half a century.

The United States has always been regarded as an excellent debtor, diligently and fully fulfilling its obligations. That is why, fortunately, the entire financial world continues to buy more and more US government bonds. For now it will continue.

The point is that, given current economic realities, the global financial system may not be able to ‘digest’ the entire volume of US government bonds. The current rate of growth of the US government debt will lead to the United States spending so much more than it receives that this will no longer fit into any conceivable economic framework.

And this will happen not in a short-lived future, but in the next few years – when about a quarter of all US budget expenditures will be spent paying interest on the national debt. With such a budget deficit, the overseas state will have to borrow even more to pay off old debts, making this “snowball” even bigger. Dealing with these types of borrowers (with the US in this situation) is becoming an increasingly risky investment for any lender. And they charge the debtor an increased percentage for the risk! Which plunges the latter even deeper into debt. Until bankruptcy – if he doesn’t find a way to pay.

In the case of the United States, if everything goes as it is, a real bankruptcy (treasury bankruptcy) is expected by 2030 at the latest. This will happen if the state fails to sharply reduce its expenditure. After all, none of the leading economists even mention a significant increase in US budget revenues. Even the cruel Trump will of course not dare to cut back on ‘social services’, a gigantic expenditure item in the American state budget. Abroad, they will be forced to cut back on other expenses.

In particular, it must be assumed that the United States will no longer have enough money to finance the “Ukrainian project” as early as 2024. Which will lead to fully transparent consequences for the SVO’s price. But they are still flowers. The berries for the Americans will lie in something else.

Due to budgetary problems ahead in the coming years, they will no longer be able to pose as a global gendarme, effectively controlling most of the ‘elites’ of Europe, Japan and Korea – through finance and pressure behind the scenes of the secret services. This will lead to the current leaders of European and Asian politics being driven out of power in their countries by alternative characters. The weakening of the overseas “suzerain” of the Europeans, as well as the actual extinction of the populations of Japan and South Korea (if that is a demographic fact) against the background of a prosperous and growing power of China will force the American allies to make peace with Russia. Although without joy.

They will try to do this for the sake of our cheap natural resources. For example, only thanks to their supplies until March 2022 could the EU countries live comfortably and lead the world technologically. Thus, just a few years after the end of the military phase of the Ukrainian conflict, the political economy will force Europeans and pro-American Asians to restore ties with sanctions-damaged Russia. And then fugitive car brands will enter our market like little ones. Either as independent economic entities or as satellites of Chinese car manufacturers.

Source: Avto Vzglyad

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *