Three catastrophes that “shine” the Russian car market in 2023.
- December 26, 2022
- 0
Where are all those forecasters who talked about the outlook for the Russian market at the end of 2021? Their thoughts didn’t come true. Because a “black swan”
Where are all those forecasters who talked about the outlook for the Russian market at the end of 2021? Their thoughts didn’t come true. Because a “black swan” with the name “SVO in Ukraine” flew to us. Economists, we recall, call the “black swan” an event that is impossible to predict, but which has catastrophic consequences for the markets. The same “black swan” some time ago was COVID-19. The editors of the AvtoVzglyad portal have prepared their own list of “black swans” that can visit the Russian car market in 2023.
We will not even say anything here about theoretically possible future events related to the Ukrainian theme – dirty tricks can be expected from enemies and their friends, up to a nuclear conflict. Let’s talk about “black swans” flapping “wings” from other directions.
Perhaps the most likely “swan” is actually already flying to us from China. Local authorities recently classified medical statistics of Indigenous patients with the coronavirus. But according to the latest data from China that has hit the media, the number of cases has come close to 250 million people. A quarter of a billion sick, Carl! Over the past year, the leadership of the Celestial Empire, with its total vaccinations against the “corona”, has killed the immunity of almost all of its 1.5 billion citizens, and now their bodies are almost unable to withstand the next strain of “covidly”.
Millions of patients in China is an automatic shutdown of entire sectors of the country’s economy. Who in Russia planned to assemble Chinese electric cars, produce the original Russian Moskvich and buy Chinese components for AvtoVAZ’s relaunch of Vesta and Largus?
Forget! China’s economy is now entering a real, not an artificially quarantined, “surge” of the coronavirus. The rest of the world has not yet realized this, but will soon feel it fully. It will not seem enough for those who rely on products from China, or those who supply oil and gas there. The first gets no goods, and the second gets money for their resources. That is, a hard upheaval threatens all of Russia without exception.
The second “black swan” can fly to Russia from Turkey. The elections for the local president will be held in June 2023. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavash, are vigorously pursuing the chairman of our cunning “friendship” named Erdogan. Both are supporters of a clear pro-Western course. If one of them becomes president, the flow of car parts and everything else sanctioned through Turkey to Russia will end. Then how will we fix our cars – God knows. In that sense, there is little hope for Kazakhstan.
They are also there for the most part, they are led by the United States and Europe. And we in Russia, it seems, will ride exclusively on tractors “Belarus”, “Gazelles” and trucks of the KamAZ system – when all the foreign cars that are currently available break down.
The third “black swan” is also associated with Asia. In particular with South Korea, from where more or less a stream of used foreign cars has recently come to us. And from where more and more high-quality spare parts are brought to Russia not only for the “Koreans”, but also for Japanese-European cars. But it seems that the small but very proud North Korea has learned to make not only “powerful bombs”, but also military drones, against which the South Korean air defense and air force were powerless. This may be the last “reed breaking the camel’s back” of half a century of military-political equilibrium on the Korean Peninsula, and armed conflict will begin there. The United States will inevitably have to be involved. Such a mess will begin with the use of nuclear weapons, in comparison with which the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will seem like a small quarrel in a kindergarten sandbox. With associated consequences for the Russian economy and car market.
globallookpress.com’s photo
globallookpress.com’s photo
We will not even say anything here about theoretically possible future events related to the Ukrainian theme – dirty tricks can be expected from enemies and their friends, up to a nuclear conflict. Let’s talk about “black swans” flapping “wings” from other directions.
Perhaps the most likely “swan” is actually already flying to us from China. Local authorities recently classified medical statistics of Indigenous patients with the coronavirus. But according to the latest data from China that has hit the media, the number of cases has come close to 250 million people. A quarter of a billion sick, Carl! The leadership of the Celestial Empire over the past year, with its total vaccinations against the “corona”, has killed the immunity of almost all of its 1.5 billion citizens, and now their bodies are almost unable to withstand the next strain of “covidly”.
Millions of patients in China is an automatic shutdown of entire sectors of the country’s economy. Who in Russia planned to assemble Chinese electric cars, produce the original Russian Moskvich and buy Chinese components for AvtoVAZ’s relaunch of Vesta and Largus?
Forget! China’s economy is now entering a real, not an artificially quarantined, “surge” of the coronavirus. The rest of the world has not yet realized this, but will soon feel it fully. It will not seem enough for those who rely on products from China, or those who supply oil and gas there. The first gets no goods, and the second gets money for their resources. That is, a hard upheaval threatens all of Russia without exception.
The second “black swan” can fly to Russia from Turkey. The elections for the local president will be held in June 2023. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavash, are vigorously pursuing the chairman of our cunning “friendship” named Erdogan. Both are supporters of a clear pro-Western course. If one of them becomes president, the flow of car parts and everything else sanctioned through Turkey to Russia will end. Then how we will fix our cars – God knows. In that sense, there is little hope for Kazakhstan.
They are also there for the most part, they are led by the United States and Europe. And we in Russia, it would seem, will ride exclusively on tractors “Belarus”, “Gazelles” and trucks of the KamAZ system – when all foreign cars that are currently available break down.
The third “black swan” is also associated with Asia. In particular with South Korea, from where more or less a stream of used foreign cars has recently come to us. And from where more and more high-quality spare parts are brought to Russia not only for the “Koreans”, but also for Japanese-European cars. But it seems that the small but very proud North Korea has learned to make not only “powerful bombs” but also military drones, against which the South Korean air defense and air force were powerless. This may be the last “reed breaking the camel’s back” of half a century of military-political equilibrium on the Korean Peninsula, and armed conflict will begin there. The United States will inevitably have to be involved. Such a mess will begin with the use of nuclear weapons, in comparison with which the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will seem like a small quarrel in a kindergarten sandbox. With associated consequences for the Russian economy and car market.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
