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Putin’s struggle with the “ceiling” of oil prices: what awaits gasoline in Russia?

  • December 28, 2022
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President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to counter the so-called oil price ceiling of Europe, the US and Japan. The AvtoVzglyad portal found out how this act will

Putin’s struggle with the “ceiling” of oil prices: what awaits gasoline in Russia?
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to counter the so-called oil price ceiling of Europe, the US and Japan. The AvtoVzglyad portal found out how this act will turn out for Russian car owners.

So, on the portal of legal information, the authorities published the same decree of the President of the Russian Federation – about the “answer” to the evil Westerners who decided to introduce a “price ceiling” for Russian oil. This event, it seems, mainly concerns export cases. However, we all know very well how quickly the price tags of Russian gas stations react to the crashes of the world oil market. So what about Putin’s decree and “our sheep”? The document prohibits the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign counterparties in the event that contracts with them “directly or indirectly provide for the use of the marginal price setting mechanism”.

The decision is valid for five months – from February 1 to July 1, 2023. As you know, on December 5, the United States, Great Britain, EU countries, Canada, Japan and Australia introduced a “price cap” on the export of Russian oil. If it costs more than $60 a barrel, their companies can’t buy it, process it, or even insure its shipment. And if it’s cheaper, no hassle. Now, if anyone doesn’t know, Russian Ural oil is trading in the markets for about $55 a barrel. A number of oil market experts report that some buyers from Turkey, India and China are “dropping” Russian suppliers of black gold as low as $40 a barrel. It turns out that this Western “price ceiling” is now generally “parallel” to us: after all, the market price of Russian oil is still below $ 60, isn’t it?

Yes, at the moment it is. And Putin’s decree on this issue does not affect anything. But that’s for now. And after the New Year in China, all coronavirus restrictions will be lifted, like a weight on their feet hanging from the Middle Kingdom economy. The recovery will not be felt until sometime from February next year. That means a serious increase in China’s demand for hydrocarbons and the inevitable rise in world oil prices. That is when the “price ceiling” will be broken and the “fun” will begin with Putin’s ban on supplying Russian oil to some of the world’s consumers. This factor will only boost world prices, and our oil may begin to “tear off with hands.”

That could well cause a jump in gasoline prices in Russia. The so-called downer that previously held them back amounts to extra payments from the budget to domestic oilmen for failing to raise Russian fuel prices to world levels. Meanwhile, in the face of sanctions and serious spending on the SVO, the federal treasury will run into a deficit of 3-6 trillion rubles in 2023, according to various estimates. ruble. The authorities may not have enough money for the oil “damper”. In this situation, next spring is likely to see prices at Russian gas stations at the level of 75-80 rubles per liter. Indeed, in Europe, in terms of Russian currency, gasoline costs at least 120-150 rubles! One can only hope that millions of Russian motorists will not break their heads at this “price ceiling”!

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So, on the portal of legal information, the authorities published the same decree of the President of the Russian Federation – about the “answer” to the evil Westerners who decided to introduce a “price ceiling” for Russian oil. This event, it seems, mainly concerns export cases. However, we all know very well how quickly the price tags of Russian gas stations react to the crashes of the world oil market. So what about Putin’s decree and “our sheep”? The document prohibits the supply of Russian oil and oil products to foreign counterparties in the event that contracts with them “directly or indirectly provide for the use of the marginal price setting mechanism”.

The decision is valid for five months, from February 1 to July 1, 2023. As you know, on December 5, the United States, Great Britain, EU countries, Canada, Japan and Australia introduced a “price cap” on the export of Russian oil. If it costs more than $60 a barrel, their companies can’t buy it, process it, or even insure shipping. And if it’s cheaper, no hassle. Now, if anyone doesn’t know, Russian Ural oil is trading in the markets for about $55 a barrel. A number of oil market experts report that some buyers from Turkey, India and China are “dropping” Russian suppliers of black gold as low as $40 a barrel. It turns out that this Western “price ceiling” is now generally “parallel” to us: after all, the market price of Russian oil is still below $ 60, isn’t it?

Yes, at the moment it is. And Putin’s decree on this issue does not affect anything. But that’s for now. And after the New Year in China, all coronavirus restrictions will be lifted, like a weight on their feet hanging from the Middle Kingdom economy. The recovery will not be felt until sometime from February next year. That means a serious increase in China’s demand for hydrocarbons and the inevitable rise in world oil prices. That is when the “price ceiling” will be broken and the “fun” will begin with Putin’s ban on supplying Russian oil to some of the world’s consumers. This factor will only boost world prices, and our oil may begin to “tear off with hands.”

That could well cause a jump in gasoline prices in Russia. The so-called downer that previously held them back amounts to extra payments from the budget to domestic oilmen for failing to raise Russian fuel prices to world levels. Meanwhile, in the face of sanctions and serious spending on the SVO, the federal treasury will run into a deficit of 3-6 trillion rubles in 2023, according to various estimates. ruble. The authorities may not have enough money for the oil “damper”. In this scenario, next spring is likely to see prices at Russian gas stations at the level of 75-80 rubles per liter. Indeed, in Europe, in terms of Russian currency, gasoline costs at least 120-150 rubles! One can only hope that millions of Russian motorists will not break their heads at this “price ceiling”!

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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