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Most normal people, if they are not professional financiers, quietly ignore the analyzes and forecasts that the Russian Central Bank regularly publishes. But this time, the AvtoVzglyad portal
As expected, the Russian Central Bank announced on 10 February that it would keep its policy rate at 7.5%. That has remained the case for the past few months. And apparently it will stay with us for a long time: this year the Central Bank will keep it in the range of 7-9%, and in 2024 – in the range of 6.5-7.5%. The average annual price of Russian oil, both in the present and next, and in 2025, will be at the level of $55 per barrel, according to state bankers. But inflation in 2023 will be decent – at the level of 5-7%.
What does this economic gibberish mean to the average motorist? First of all, they tell us openly, albeit in a language incomprehensible to most: it doesn’t get any better than now! Due to the stable high policy interest rate of the Central Bank, loans for the industry will remain as unaffordable as they are now. Accordingly, Russian car factories suffer and will suffer from shortages and exorbitant prices for car parts. After all, few people are really ready to create new production of components at such a high key rate. Strictly speaking, therefore, one should not expect a significant increase in the production of the domestic car industry. There is nothing for him to grow in the years to come!
Consistently cheap Russian oil ($55 each) doesn’t inspire optimism either. Taking advantage of this circumstance, the authorities are about to bring the exchange rate of the Russian currency from the recent 69-70 to 77-78 rubles per dollar.
The miners and processors of the contents of the Russian underground (oil workers, metalworkers, miners, fertilizer manufacturers) are pressuring the government with their whining about losses with a strong ruble. Like, only with the Russian currency somewhere around 80 rubles per dollar, it is profitable for them to produce at least something. That is, instead of improving the manufacturability and efficiency of their production and reducing costs, they brazenly lobbied for an artificial collapse of the ruble.
And for Russian car owners, the weak national currency means that car sales prices will remain “horse” – as they are now. Moreover, the emergence of even new car brands in our country will not improve the situation. Nevertheless, the numbers in the price lists of car dealers will grow. If only because the Central Bank has planned significant inflation for the coming years. The new car will finally become a luxury. After all, the growth of the real incomes of the population is clearly not expected, rather the opposite. Under such conditions, only a citizen who has swallowed nitrous oxide can seriously expect an increase in sales in the Russian car market …
The conclusion from all of the above can be made disappointing: 2023 in the Russian car market will pass almost like 2022. The only difference is that instead of “Europeans”, “Japanese” and “Koreans”, dealers deal in “Chinese” and “Iranian”. In addition, the import of used cars from abroad will flourish even more.
On 10 February, the Russian Central Bank announced, as expected, that it would keep its policy rate at 7.5%. That has remained the case for the past few months. And apparently it will stay with us for a long time: this year the Central Bank will keep it in the range of 7-9%, and in 2024 – in the range of 6.5-7.5%. The average annual price of Russian oil, both in the present and next, and in 2025, will be at the level of $55 per barrel, according to state bankers. But inflation in 2023 will be decent – at the level of 5-7%.
What does this economic gibberish mean to the average motorist? First of all, they tell us openly, albeit in a language incomprehensible to most: it doesn’t get any better than now! Due to the stable high policy interest rate of the Central Bank, loans for the industry will remain as unaffordable as they are now. Accordingly, Russian car factories suffer and will suffer from shortages and exorbitant prices for car parts. After all, few people are really ready to create new production of components at such a high key rate. Strictly speaking, therefore, one should not expect a significant increase in the production of the domestic car industry. There is nothing for him to grow in the years to come!
Consistently cheap Russian oil ($55 each) doesn’t inspire optimism either. Taking advantage of this circumstance, the authorities are about to bring the exchange rate of the Russian currency from the recent 69-70 to 77-78 rubles per dollar.
The miners and processors of the contents of the Russian underground (oil workers, metalworkers, miners, fertilizer manufacturers) are pressuring the government with their whining about losses with a strong ruble. Like, only with the Russian currency somewhere around 80 rubles per dollar, it is profitable for them to produce at least something. That is, instead of improving the manufacturability and efficiency of their production and reducing costs, they brazenly lobbied for an artificial collapse of the ruble.
And for Russian car owners, the weak national currency means that car sales prices will remain “horse” – as they are now. Moreover, the emergence of even new car brands in our country will not improve the situation. Nevertheless, the numbers in the price lists of car dealers will grow. If only because the Central Bank has planned significant inflation for the coming years. The new car will finally become a luxury. After all, the growth of the real incomes of the population is clearly not expected, rather the opposite. Under such conditions, only a citizen who has swallowed nitrous oxide can seriously expect an increase in sales in the Russian car market …
The conclusion from all of the above can be made disappointing: 2023 in the Russian car market will pass almost like 2022. The only difference is that instead of “Europeans”, “Japanese” and “Koreans”, dealers deal in “Chinese” and “Iranian”. In addition, the import of used cars from abroad will flourish even more.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
