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“Horse prices” for almost all makes and models of cars in Russia have become a sad reality since the spring of last year. The AvtoVzglyad portal collected the
According to various estimates, passenger car prices in Russia increased by an average of 50% at the beginning of last year. Yes, and so far frozen at that level. Since then, the exchange rate of the Russian currency has actually returned to the indicators “until February 2022”, while wages and the purchasing power of the population have not increased. Cars are expensive and people are not eager to buy them. A new car really changes from a means of transport to a luxury. The unnaturalness of the current situation is obvious to everyone – from the “drivers” of the auto industry to the latest car owner.
Considering all of the above, we decided to find out: what do experts in the car market, that is, people who are directly “immersed” in this topic, think about the prospects for lowering prices for new cars.
— It is not worth expecting a fall in sales prices for cars and crossovers before the end of this year. Theoretically, prices should fall slightly as the supply of cars increases. But the problem is that the real effective demand in Russia this year corresponds to about 950,000 cars. And on the market, as expected, only 650,000-670,000 units will be sold this year. So we see a shortfall of around 300,000 vehicles. And so far there is nothing to compensate for it. Russian car factories sell just over 500,000 cars a year. According to parallel imports, about 150,000-180,000 units will be imported at best, Sergey Burgazliev, an independent consultant for the automotive and transportation industry, explains to the AvtoVzglyad portal.
Sergey Pigolkin, head of online new car auction Car Click, agrees with Sergey Burgazliev’s predictions and calculations regarding likely price dynamics in the Russian car market.
— A fall in car prices in the near future is unlikely. It’s simple: there is no localization of cars of foreign brands – there are no low prices. The logistics of delivering cars from China are very expensive. And in general – from everywhere it is already expensive to take with you. Plus customs fees. Let’s say that a particular model in China costs 8,000-10,000 dollars, about 620,000-770,000 rubles for our money. After passing through customs procedures and delivery to Moscow, it will cost at least 1.8-2 million rubles. Returning to the question of lowering prices, I assume that it is theoretically possible only with regard to the cars of the “big Chinese three” – Haval, Chery and Geely. Because they have margin. But I doubt they will go for it,” says Pigolkin.
Nevertheless, the situation in the Russian car market on the horizon of more than 1.5-2 years has every chance not to be as sad as it is now. It is during this period that the market can be saturated with cars, which will cause prices to fall.
– In Russia now there is a shortage of cars in the amount of approximately equal to 1 million units. This gives sellers the ability to dictate prices, with the market swinging all the way in the direction of their rise. An increase in the supply of cars can reduce this. According to my estimates, the “pendulum” will be in its current position for the next year and a half. Only then will it begin to move in the direction of lowering the cost of selling cars. This will happen when manufacturers and importers of Chinese cars are completely reorganized, in Russia the production of vehicles and AVTOVAZ will be localized and start working, having overcome the problems with the supply of components, it will reach decent production volumes. But not before. Our market should return to the volume of supply at the level of 1.6-1.8 million cars per year. Only then will the shortage disappear and prices will slowly fall. If the supply rises to at least 2 million, they will drop significantly. Of course, all of the above will come true only if there are no serious shocks in our economy. For example, there will be no devaluation of the ruble, after which the fall in retail prices can be forgotten,” says Alexei Podshchekoldin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BN-Motors Group.
So it makes sense that Russian car owners postpone the purchase of a new personal car for at least a year and a half. During this period, the situation in the country’s car market should improve.
According to various estimates, passenger car prices in Russia increased by an average of 50% at the beginning of last year. Yes, and so far frozen at that level. Since then, the exchange rate of the Russian currency has actually returned to the indicators “until February 2022”, while wages and the purchasing power of the population have not increased. Cars are expensive and people are not eager to buy them. A new car really changes from a means of transport to a luxury. The unnaturalness of the current situation is obvious to everyone – from the “drivers” of the auto industry to the latest car owner.
Considering all of the above, we decided to find out: what do experts in the car market, that is, people who are directly “immersed” in this topic, think about the prospects for lowering prices for new cars.
— It is not worth expecting a fall in sales prices for cars and crossovers before the end of this year. Theoretically, prices should fall slightly as the supply of cars increases. But the problem is that the real effective demand in Russia this year corresponds to about 950,000 cars. And on the market, as expected, only 650,000-670,000 units will be sold this year. So we see a shortfall of around 300,000 vehicles. And so far there is nothing to compensate for it. Russian car factories sell just over 500,000 cars a year. According to parallel imports, about 150,000-180,000 units will be imported at best, Sergey Burgazliev, an independent consultant for the automotive and transportation industry, explains to the AvtoVzglyad portal.
Sergey Pigolkin, head of online new car auction Car Click, agrees with Sergey Burgazliev’s predictions and calculations regarding likely price dynamics in the Russian car market.
— A fall in car prices in the near future is unlikely. It’s simple: there is no localization of cars of foreign brands – there are no low prices. The logistics of delivering cars from China are very expensive. And in general – from everywhere it is already expensive to take with you. Plus customs fees. Let’s say that a particular model in China costs 8,000-10,000 dollars, about 620,000-770,000 rubles for our money. After passing through customs procedures and delivery to Moscow, it will cost at least 1.8-2 million rubles. Returning to the question of lowering prices, I assume that it is theoretically possible only with regard to the cars of the “big Chinese three” – Haval, Chery and Geely. Because they have margin. But I doubt they will go for it,” says Pigolkin.
Nevertheless, the situation in the Russian car market on the horizon of more than 1.5-2 years has every chance not to be as sad as it is now. It is during this period that the market can be saturated with cars, which will cause prices to fall.
– In Russia now there is a shortage of cars in the amount of approximately equal to 1 million units. This allows sellers to dictate prices, driving the market’s “pendulum” all the way up. An increase in the supply of cars can reduce this. According to my estimates, the “pendulum” will be in its current position for the next year and a half. Only then will it begin to move in the direction of lowering the cost of selling cars. This will happen when manufacturers and importers of Chinese cars are completely reorganized, in Russia the production of vehicles and AVTOVAZ will be localized and start working, having overcome the problems with the supply of components, it will reach decent production volumes. But not before. Our market should return to the volume of supply at the level of 1.6-1.8 million cars per year. Only then will the shortage disappear and prices will slowly fall. If the supply rises to at least 2 million, they will drop significantly. Of course, all of the above will come true only if there are no serious shocks in our economy. For example, there will be no devaluation of the ruble, after which the fall in retail prices can be forgotten,” says Alexei Podshchekoldin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BN-Motors Group.
So it makes sense that Russian car owners postpone the purchase of a new personal car for at least a year and a half. During this period, the situation in the country’s car market should improve.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
