Remember how in recent years everyone – from specialist industry media to inactive bloggers – “sucked” the topics of a shortage of car electronics, component supply problems caused by widespread coronavirus lockdowns? How has everyone wisely called problems with the production of cars, the lack of supply in the market, and so on?

In Russia, in this regard, if anyone does not remember, in 2020-2021, under the sauce of underdeliveries of vehicles from abroad, local car dealerships increased sales prices for almost all car models. But now, outside Russia at least, this market pendulum has clearly swung in the opposite direction.

According to analysts from UBS, one of the largest Swiss financial holding companies, world car production will reach 85.8 million units in 2023. This is about 6% higher than the expected global demand for vehicles. That is, the auto industry will produce about 5 million more cars in a year than consumers can buy. The impact of this phenomenon has already been felt by the Chinese.

What can Russian motorists expect from this beautiful collision? On the one hand, we can hope that the surplus of cars from foreign markets will move to us and help to lower the selling prices of cars in Russia, which are unpalatable for most consumers. Nevertheless, the shortage of supply in the domestic car market is serious at around 1 million units per year. The efforts of AVTOVAZ and UAZ will clearly not satisfy him.

We would have a very useful “surplus million” from foreign markets. But – it won’t work. First of all, because the European and Asian car brands that have left our country, even to sell “surpluses”, will not return for political reasons. Remains “grey” and parallel import. And also domestic customs legislation. It is because of him that almost every car imported into Russia becomes about twice as expensive as in the country of origin.

With such initial data, it is generally strange to talk about affordable foreign cars on the Russian market. Accordingly, if they come to us, the echoes of foreign overproduction of cars and their price wars are in a very weakened form. There is some hope that the lesson of overproduction will encourage foreign (read Chinese) automakers to start serious about localizing production of their cars in Russia in the future.

Although, following the example of Haval with his almost full-fledged car factory in the Tula region, this offers no protection against the indomitable greed of the sons of the Middle Kingdom. In any case, they will shamelessly continue to raise the prices for their cars in Russia, taking advantage of the absence of competing brands from Europe and Asia.

Remember how in recent years everyone – from specialist industry media to inactive bloggers – “sucked” the topics of a shortage of car electronics, component supply problems caused by widespread coronavirus lockdowns? How has everyone wisely called problems with the production of cars, the lack of supply in the market, and so on?

In Russia, in this regard, if anyone does not remember, in 2020-2021, under the sauce of underdeliveries of vehicles from abroad, local car dealerships increased sales prices for almost all car models. But now, outside Russia at least, this market pendulum has clearly swung in the opposite direction.

According to analysts from UBS, one of the largest Swiss financial holding companies, world car production will reach 85.8 million units in 2023. This is about 6% higher than the expected global demand for vehicles. That is, the auto industry will produce about 5 million more cars in a year than consumers can buy. The impact of this phenomenon has already been felt by the Chinese.

What can Russian motorists expect from this beautiful collision? On the one hand, we can hope that the surplus of cars from foreign markets will move to us and help to lower the selling prices of cars in Russia, which are unpalatable for most consumers. Nevertheless, the shortage of supply in the domestic car market is serious at around 1 million units per year. The efforts of AvtoVAZ and UAZ will clearly not satisfy him.

We would have a very useful “surplus million” from foreign markets. But – it won’t work. First of all, because the European and Asian car brands that have left our country, even to sell “surpluses”, will not return for political reasons. Remains “grey” and parallel import. And also domestic customs legislation. It is because of him that almost every car imported into Russia becomes about twice as expensive as in the country of origin.

With such initial data, it is generally strange to talk about affordable foreign cars on the Russian market. Accordingly, if they come to us, the echoes of foreign overproduction of cars and their price wars are in a very weakened form. There is some hope that the lesson of overproduction will encourage foreign (read Chinese) automakers to start serious about localizing production of their cars in Russia in the future.

Although, following the example of Haval with his almost full-fledged car factory in the Tula region, this offers no protection against the indomitable greed of the sons of the Middle Kingdom. In any case, they will shamelessly continue to raise the prices for their cars in Russia, taking advantage of the absence of competing brands from Europe and Asia.