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Expert warns of risks of dropping bitcoin to $10,000

In an interview with Cointelegraph, a trader under the pseudonym filbfilb allowed bitcoin to drop from current levels to $10,000-11,000. He gained notoriety for correctly predicting the end of the bear market in 2018.

According to the expert, Bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under tremendous pressure due to the Fed’s policies. The first cryptocurrency acts as a risky asset, not inflation insurance.

filbfilb noted that the coming winter will be a serious test for European Union residents and politicians, and the consequences will have a negative impact on homeowners. What matters will be how Old World countries can deal with the energy crisis.

According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who can prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. Dialogue with Russia and NATO is important – the sooner it starts, the higher the minimum bitcoin will be, the expert said.

Unlike previous phases of decline, this time things are a little different for drivers. In terms of technical drawing, on the contrary, there is a typical correction within the usual time horizon. Due to the lack of much trade in the $10,000 – $20,000 region, the drop could extend to $10,000 – $11,000.

The trader described the Bitcoin rally in the first quarter of 2023 as “obvious.” He sees two reasons for this:

  • The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1,000 days after halving (will be early next year);
  • the second is that the mood changes to positive, based on game theory. The expert suggested that with a 2/3 probability Europe will get through the next winter, because if things go badly, it will increase the possibility of a dialogue that will bring stability in the short term.

The expert also commented on the upcoming The Merge on the Ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the asset problem could encourage the growth of the coin. At the same time, the expert did not rule out a dump after the event itself, citing Bitcoin’s post-halving response similar to the merger.

The addressee of the publication reminded the inflation report that will be released soon in the USA on September 13.

Positive news and triggering the “buy on rumors, sell on reality” axiom could lead to bitcoin’s leading dynamics. In the future, the advantage will already be on Ethereum’s side, provided there are no problems after The Merge, he added.

Recall that in August bitcoin nearly doubled the drop of the second cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization.

On September 7, Bitcoin prices dropped to $18,500 for the first time since mid-July. Two days later, the price of digital gold rose above $21,000.

Read ForkLog bitcoin news in our Telegram – cryptocurrency news, courses and analysis.

Source: Fork Log

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