The question is whether and when Africa will be completely partitioned. To answer this question, it is useful to look at the tectonic plates of the region.

What awaits Africa?

Along this massive fault in East Africa, the Somali tectonic plate protrudes eastward from the Nubian tectonic plate, a larger, older part of the continent, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory.

The Somali and Nubian plates are also separating from the Arabian plate towards the north. The Geological Society of London states that these plates intersect in Ethiopia’s Afar region, forming a Y-shaped rift system.

East African Rift began to form about 35 million years ago in the eastern part of the continent between Arabia and the Horn of Africa. This fault eventually spread southward and reached northern Kenya 25 million years ago.

A rift consists of two parallel groups of faults in the earth’s crust. The eastern fault runs through Ethiopia and Kenya, and the western fault arcs from Uganda to Malawi. The eastern branch is arid, while the western branch borders the Congo rainforest.

Map showing tectonic plate boundaries (grey) and East African Rift Zone (dashed lines) / Photo by USGS

The East African Rift was most likely formed by heat from the asthenosphere (the warmer, weaker, upper part of Earth’s mantle) between Kenya and Ethiopia. This heat caused the earth’s crust to expand and rise, which led to the stretching and disappearance of fragile continental rocks. This has led to significant volcanic activity, including the formation of Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa’s highest.

There are different versions of how this could happen if Africa breaks up.

• In one scenario, most of the Somali plate would separate from the rest of the African continent and a sea would form between them. According to Ebinger, this new landmass will include Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, as well as eastern regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique.
• In another scenario, only the eastern parts of Tanzania and Mozambique are separated.
• Regardless, most of the current African continent’s landmass will remain intact.

But Africa may not be divided in two. The geological forces driving the faults may have been too slow to separate the Somali and Nubian plates. An example of a failed fault anywhere in the world is the Central Ocean Fault, which stretches nearly 3,000 kilometers in parts of North America.