Global warming

On one of the maps you can see how the temperature on the planet has changed in 2022 compared to 1850, the beginning of the industrial era. The average level of warming across countries exceeded the planet’s pre-industrial revolution temperature by 1.81 degrees. During this period, the highest warming occurred in Mongolia (2.54 degrees) and the least in Bangladesh (1.1 degrees). Ukraine narrowly escaped the leader – we warmed up by 2.06 degrees.

The Paris climate agreement set a threshold of two degrees Celsius for the entire world. However, the fact that some countries have still not reached this value balances the world average. However, judging by the latest trends, this situation will not last long.

Temperature increase by country between 2022 and 1850 / Photo: Visual Capitalist

Faster warming in the countries of the Northern Hemisphere is explained by the phenomenon of Arctic amplification, which warms the Arctic more strongly than in other parts of the world. This is because glaciers are melting: they reflect sunlight worse and accumulate more heat. This phenomenon will especially affect Russia and Canada.

What to expect in 2050?

The second and third maps show warming forecasts by country for 2050 and 2100. These assumptions are based on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “middle ground” scenario, known as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). This scenario is closest to the emissions expected given current climate control policies. However, it is worth noting that many scientists say that we are exceeding predicted warming rates, when in fact the situation is worse..

In the SSP scenario, projections for 2050 show that the average warming in countries will reach 2.75 degrees compared to the average temperatures of 1850-1900. The greatest warming is expected to occur in Mongolia (3.76 degrees), and the least warming is expected to occur in New Zealand (2.02 degrees). An increase of +2.93 degrees is expected in Ukraineand +3.62 degrees in Russia.

Temperature increase by country, comparing 2050 and 1850 / Photo: Visual Capitalist

And if that doesn’t seem like that much to you, then in fact every hundredth of a degree impacts ecosystems. Even before reaching two degrees, we faced terrible heat waves that reached almost 50 degrees in some places and intensified, numerous fires, hurricanes, extinction of dozens of animal species, changes in natural habitats, productivity problems, rising sea levels. , and more. According to predictions, it will soon become completely impossible to live in some countries due to extremely high temperatures.

Hot year 2100

• Predictions for 2100 predict an average warming of 3.80 degrees.
• More than 55 countries can expect warming of more than 4 degrees, and almost 100 countries can expect warming of more than 3.5 degrees.
• Ukraine is warming by 3.81 degreesand as in the USA.
• The lowest warming rate is expected to be 2.67 degrees in England.
• The worst case scenario will happen in Canada; The average temperature there will increase to 5.21 degrees.

Temperature increase by country between 2100 and 1850 / Photo: Visual Capitalist

This will lead to accelerated extinction of animal species on a global scale, water scarcity, the danger of famine, and new threats to public health (epidemics and pandemics). It is likely that little will remain of our glaciers by then, and many settlements built near the coast will be flooded. Permafrost will release not only millions of tons of methane, but also ancient viruses and bacteria to which we have no immunity.